US and Iran agree tentative deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz after G7 talks, but Lebanon and nuclear obstacles remain
A tentative agreement between Washington and Tehran would extend a fragile ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the accord hinges on a Friday signing in Geneva and faces challenges from Israel's war in Lebanon and Iran's nuclear programme.
From helicopter downing to tentative peace
On 9 June, U.S. forces launched strikes on Iran after Tehran shot down an American helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, triggering the sharpest escalation in years. Days later, President Trump announced via social media that a deal would be signed on Sunday, promising that the strait would be "open to all" immediately after. The two sides instead reached an initial agreement on Monday 15 June, with mediator Pakistan setting a formal signing for Friday in Geneva.
I would like France to be able to deploy one or two ships.
The deal would extend the ceasefire and clear the way for the reopening of the waterway, but shipping is expected to remain restricted until the ink dries.
Obstacles on the road to Friday
Significant hurdles remain. Israel, which is not party to the accord, insists it will not withdraw from occupied areas in Lebanon and will continue its campaign against Hezbollah. Iran has demanded that any agreement to end the broader war must halt the fighting in Lebanon.
Much remains for Friday.
The pact also grants just 60 days to resolve the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and atomic programme, an issue that took years to settle in the 2015 nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew.
European flotilla ready to secure the strait
Speaking at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, French President Macron said France and the United Kingdom are ready to lead a naval mission, with support from the Netherlands and Italy, to safeguard the strait once the US-Iran agreement is implemented. France could dispatch fighter jets within 24 hours, frigates within 48 hours, and an aircraft carrier shortly after. Macron warned that reopening the strait while imposing tolls would violate international law.
We are ready to have, from tomorrow, fighter jets on site that can help in reconnaissance missions. Within 48 hours, frigates can obviously be deployed, then the aircraft carrier. In short, we are ready.
- U.S. launches strikes on Iran after Tehran downed its helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Trump posts that a deal will be signed Sunday and the strait will open immediately after.
- U.S. and Iran reach tentative agreement; Pakistan announces signing for Friday in Geneva.
- Macron says European naval mission ready within days once the accord is applied.
- Expected signing of the deal in Geneva, followed by reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil markets eye reopening timeline
The French president added that consumers would see the effect on oil prices "in the coming weeks," underscoring the urgency to make the reopening stick. Global energy, food and commodity prices surged after the strait was shut, and leaders from Europe to China welcomed the tentative deal.
In the coming weeks we will have an impact on oil prices.
Lebanon hopes for spillover peace
Lebanese President Michel Aoun expressed hope that the US-Iran accord would "definitively end" the Israel-Hezbollah war, calling the security of Lebanon "an integral part of any effort to consolidate stability in the region."
