World
The Middle East after Gaza
Updated 2h ago·Update
3/5
The Gaza war has accelerated a fundamental realignment of Middle Eastern power, shifting influence from traditional centers like Egypt and Syria towards the Gulf states, while simultaneously forcing regional and European powers to negotiate a new, post-conflict security architecture for critical chokepoints and alliances.
The US-Iran technical talks stalled, Iran resumed attacks on commercial vessels, and the EU imposed new sanctions, indicating a significant setback in de-escalation efforts and a hardening of positions around the Strait of Hormuz.
State of play
The interim US-Iran agreement, aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions, has moved into a technical implementation phase, though this process is currently stalled. Disagreements persist over nuclear inspections, the scope of sanctions relief, and Iran's control over maritime traffic. Iranian officials deny agreement to expanded IAEA access or detailed nuclear limits, despite US assertions. Technical talks in Doha concluded on July 1 without resolving key disputes over Iran’s proposed shipping tolls and its authority over the Strait.
Strait of Hormuz
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has seen a sharp decline following renewed US-Iran hostilities. Iran continues to issue navigation advisories, demanding commercial vessels use its unilaterally designated routes and threatening military responses against those that do not. Iran has resumed limited attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait, targeting the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 along an alternative route near Oman. The US has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and imposed a 20 percent charge on cargo value for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing the move as cost recovery for American patrols. The EU has imposed additional sanctions on Iranian individuals and entities involved in obstructing transit through Hormuz, including asset freezes and entry bans. US officials indicate further easing of restrictions depends on Iran’s cooperation on nuclear constraints and maritime security, warning that renewed hostilities could trigger a snap-back of restrictions.
Lebanon-Israel Front
Remote violence incidents between Israel and Hezbollah have decreased, suggesting some de-escalation in bombardments, though intermittent exchanges of fire continue along the border. Israeli air and artillery strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon persist, as do rocket and missile fire into Israel. A deadly Israeli drone strike near Nabatieh on July 11-12 killed four civilians, marking a material escalation. US-mediated discussions have produced an outline for extending the existing ceasefire and creating pilot security zones in Lebanon where the Lebanese Armed Forces would have sole control and Hezbollah fighters would be barred, conditional on a complete halt in Hezbollah attacks.
Key events
Full chronicle490
This week
- US-Iran technical talks in Doha concluded without resolving key disputes.
- Iran resumed limited attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
- EU imposed new sanctions on Iranian entities for obstructing Hormuz transit.
- An Israeli drone strike killed four civilians near Nabatieh, Lebanon.
- US President Trump declared America the 'Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz'.