US-Iran war costs $37.5 billion, oil hits $100 as unpopular conflict dominates midterm campaigns

A war without an end

The United States resumed military operations against Iran on July 14, barely a month after signing a ceasefire on terms widely seen as favorable to Tehran. The Trump administration has offered little public explanation for the renewed campaign, and The Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence doubts the new attacks will force Iran to change course. In a tactical shift, the Pentagon moved staging bases from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, countries with deeper histories of hostility toward Iran. The repositioning did not prevent a lethal strike: over the weekend of July 19–20, Iranian missiles hit a base in Jordan, killing three American service members and destroying air assets.

It's a skirmish.

President Trump has oscillated between downplaying the conflict and threatening escalation. At a rally in Atlanta on July 22, he called the war a "skirmish." A day later, he said he was considering launching a "massive attack." The economic toll is mounting. On July 21, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put the war's cost at $37.5 billion, and the administration has requested billions more. On July 23, global oil prices hit $100 per barrel for the first time since May, driven in part by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz during earlier phases of the fighting.

Political fallout

Public support for the war has eroded sharply. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll released in mid-July found that only 29 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the conflict. A separate Politico survey showed that enthusiasm among self-identified MAGA voters for continuing the war fell 13 percentage points between May and mid-July, from half to 37 percent.

The administration had hoped that this would be a quick and decisive operation, and clearly it's now dragging on. It is a liability for the party.

Speaker Mike Johnson captured the urgency on the Hill: "We got to wrap it up," he said this week. House Republicans left Washington on July 23 for a five-week August recess, knowing they will face voters angry about high gas prices and an open-ended military commitment.

Democratic offensive

Democrats are moving to make the war a centerpiece of their midterm message, linking it directly to affordability. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans "have failed the American people" and announced a new affordability initiative. In Maine, the Democratic group Majority Forward has already spent more than $1.5 million on ads tying the conflict to rising costs at home. The strategy mirrors a broader effort to frame the war as a drain on household budgets, with $100 oil as a daily reminder.

Republican response

Majority Leader Steve Scalise acknowledged that Iran "will absolutely come up" during the recess, alongside cost of living and border security. Some members tried to highlight legislative wins: the House funded the government through December 4, adopted a budget blueprint for a $95 billion party-line package, and passed the annual defense policy bill. "We've got a plan going into the fall," said Representative Mike Flood. But those bills now face an uncertain path in the Senate. Representative Marlin Stutzman put the odds of Senate adoption of the budget resolution at "50/50, and I'm not optimistic." One House Republican, speaking anonymously, summed up the mood: "We have a hell of a lot of work to do, that's clear."