Iran rebuilds missile bases as Vance blames war for Republican midterm losses

Rebuilding at missile and air bases

Satellite images taken in November show digging and new buildings at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north, according to analysts at the British intelligence company MAIAR, who reviewed the photos for BBC Verify. At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, also appear to show repair work. At the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, close to the Iraqi border, new roofs have gone up on structures that had been destroyed. At the Parchin military complex east of Tehran, damaged structures and debris have been cleared, and analysts said significant construction has been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility there. Across the country, Iranian forces have concentrated on small-scale repairs since the US-Israeli war began.

Why analysts see underground production

Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran, said the digging near Shahroud could be linked to missile production. The air base there has been struck several times in recent years, so the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is probably looking for ways to move its production facilities underground, he argued. A MAIAR analyst pointed to Iran's established habit of relocating infrastructure below ground to shield it from further strikes. Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, said underground facilities would also make it harder for outsiders to judge their scale and whether they are running.

Washington after the midterms

Before the vote, speculation had grown that the United States could resume attacks on Iran once the midterm elections were over. Voters went to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November, and on Wednesday, 4 November, Vice-President JD Vance blamed the war for the Republican defeat. He argued that the war's unpopularity with voters had driven the poor showing, and he suggested it could cost his party control of the Senate for 6 years. In a post on X, which Donald Trump Jr. reposted, he wrote:

“The reason we lost is the war”

Trump has played down the prospect of another round of US-led attacks since the results came in. The Democrats' sweeping victory gives them control of Congress.

Democratic majorities and Israel policy

Democrats will hold big majorities in both the House and Senate when the new Congress begins in January, and their ranks include progressives who want a sharper break with Israel. Senator Peter Welch of Vermont described a "consensus position of opposition and distrust" toward Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his government. Welch also argued that the fallout from the vote could go further than the stand-off with Iran, which is now in its ninth month, and he put the change in these terms:

“Our historic relationship with Israel was based on our respect for the Jewish democratic state”

He added that the alliance had also rested on Israel serving as an ally against a threatening Arab world, a basis he said had been destroyed. The new Democratic majority could push to end "unrestricted aid" to Israel and press Trump to end the war in Iran, while a Republican-led bill to deepen integration between the two countries' defence industries faces serious hurdles.

Iran's rulers and public mood

Tehran is preparing for the chance of renewed US and Israeli strikes now that the vote is over. Inflation has reached almost 90 percent, and the war has damaged natural gas infrastructure, so people are being pushed to conserve energy as winter sets in or face higher prices. Even so, several Iranians interviewed still back the Islamic Republic despite the hardships. Despite the hardships, Iran's rulers still have a base of support.