Vance blames Trump's Iran war for Republican midterm defeat, distancing himself from the president

Vance puts the blame on the war

JD Vance published a 614-word post on X on Wednesday morning, 4 November, arguing that the Republicans lost the midterm elections because of the war against Iran that Trump began in late February 2026. Several sources told Politico that Vance wrote the post himself and informed the White House before publishing it, and that Trump found this entirely fine. In the post, Vance said everyone knows why the party lost and that any honest debate about the way forward has to start there. He also wrote that anyone who believed the war was worth losing the Senate for six years should say so openly. El País read the message either as a rebuke of his boss or as the first step of an ambitious politician aiming for the 2028 nomination.

Trump's own account

Trump had already told Fox News that part of the defeat was linked to Iran. On Wednesday he said that agreeing with Vance was largely right, because the war had pushed up gasoline prices. Shortly afterwards he argued that the price of oil, not the war itself, was the main reason for the losses. He also said he could end the war at any time, and that he would not change anything about it, because the aim was to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. On election night he had said he was not on the ballot, so not enough people turned out to vote. That same Wednesday he walked reporters through the ballroom under construction at the White House, a project N-tv reports is financed by Silicon Valley tech billionaires, and talked about marble floors and chandeliers.

What Vance says voters wanted

Vance argued that turnout was not the main problem, since his people did go to the polls, and his team's data analysts had studied before the vote whether the electorate resembled that of 2024. The real problem, he wrote, was that many people who voted for Trump and Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. A pollster he cited asked former Trump voters what would bring them back, and nearly all answers fell into four demands: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first, and change the relationship with Israel. Before the vote, another pollster had predicted a 13 percentage point defeat in the generic congressional vote, and Vance wrote that even he was shocked by the result. A data expert had also warned him that many 2024 Trump and Vance voters were angry and planned to vote for other candidates.

Republicans turn on each other

Ari Fleischer, who was White House press secretary under George W. Bush from January 2001 to July 2003, replied to Vance directly on X. He argued that the problem was the ceasefire, not the Iran war, and that the conflict should have ended with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. Fleischer said that whoever starts a war has to win it and end it, and he described the decision to attack Iran as Trump's, which he considered the right one. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former representative who is now shunned by many in the party, called for Trump to be thrown out of the Republican Party. Florida's outgoing governor Ron DeSantis criticized congressional Republicans, among other things, for resisting the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and according to CNN he called the result nearly existential for the party in parts of the country.

What comes next

Vance has long been considered a possible Republican presidential candidate for 2028, and watson reads his analysis as an early attempt to position himself as a voice for the party's new direction. Watson also argues that the defeat could change the last two years of Trump's presidency and open a contest over who leads the party. Stern asks who will be the first to pay for the defeat, a question that remains open. Trump has said he would act the same way again on the war, which leaves the disagreement between him and his vice president unresolved.