US, Iran reach preliminary deal to end war; Hormuz minesweeping could take 50 days, Macron announces European mission

The deal announcement

Iran and the United States announced on Sunday a preliminary memorandum to end the war that began with the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February. The text, mediated by Pakistan, outlines steps to lift the blockade of Iranian ports, resolve Iran's nuclear programme, ease sanctions and address the situation in Lebanon. A signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday 19 June, according to Antonio Gozzi, president of Italian steel federation Federacciai.

Minesweeping timeline and shipping caution

Security sources cited by Reuters say minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz, involving conventional vessels and underwater drones, could last 40 to 50 days before insurance firms and shipping companies consider the waterway safe. The US has indicated Iran mined international waters; Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate hearing on 2 June that Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz." Germany's navy, relaying US and British intelligence, listed four mine locations on 11 June.

We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point. The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need to be established.

About 300 loaded vessels are waiting to transit the strait, with a similar number of empty ships in the Gulf of Oman, according to Bloomberg. Major Japanese shipping lines Mitsui OSK Lines and Nippon Yusen remain cautious, and Caravel Group CEO Angad Banga noted that previous positive signals had not lasted.

We have already seen positive signals in the past, and I believe that in the end what really matters is that the agreement holds over time.

European naval mission

Speaking from Evian-les-Bains before the G7 summit, French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Britain are ready to lead a mission in the Strait of Hormuz, with support from the Netherlands and Italy, to help reopen the sea lane once the US-Iran deal takes effect. He added the mission could be deployed within two to three days and that imposing tolls for passage would contravene international law.

In the coming weeks there will be an impact on oil prices. We need to make sure it is a lasting reality.

Iran’s toll suspension and sovereignty claims

Iranian news agency Fars, citing an informed source, reported that the final memorandum explicitly recognises Iranian and Omani sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Under the accord, Iran agreed to toll-free passage for 60 days – a US-negotiated exemption – before Tehran intends to charge fees for security, navigation, environmental and insurance services, directing the revenue to national economic development. Oman's cooperation was vital in securing this arrangement.

Regional reactions and oil price impact

Lebanese President Michel Aoun expressed hope that the deal would "definitively" end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, noting the memorandum states that Lebanon's security is integral to regional stability. Antonio Gozzi warned that even if the situation resolved today, it would take months for real economy supply chains – disrupted not only in oil but also in phosphates, helium and other strategic raw materials – to return to normal. Oil stockpiles in the world's largest economies are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003, adding pressure to every export barrel from the Gulf.