Polls open in Holborn and St Pancras by-election to replace Keir Starmer
Voters in north London are casting ballots to choose a successor to Keir Starmer, presenting an early electoral test for Prime Minister Andy Burnham against Green leader Zack Polanski.
Polling opens in north London
Polls opened on Thursday morning in the north London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras to elect a successor to former prime minister Keir Starmer. The parliamentary contest follows Starmer's announcement last month that he was stepping down as a member of parliament, having previously resigned from 10 Downing Street in July. Sagal Abdi-Wali, a local council leader, is standing for Labour in an effort to retain what has long functioned as a party stronghold. Labour faces competition from a crowded field, with 13 other candidates registered on the ballot papers. These contenders include Conservative candidate Ewan Cameron, Peter Newman representing Reform UK, and Patrick Thomas Stillman running for the Liberal Democrats.
- The Green Party wins the Gorton and Denton by-election from Labour
- The Green Party takes control of several London councils in local elections
- Andy Burnham succeeds Keir Starmer as prime minister
- Keir Starmer announces his resignation as member of parliament
- Polls open in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election
The Green challenge and polling trajectory
Labour's primary opposition in the constituency comes from Zack Polanski, who leads the Green Party in England and Wales. Polanski has received the formal endorsement of the left-wing independent candidate who mounted a challenge against Starmer in the 2024 general election but chose not to stand again. Green organizers have deployed large numbers of campaign volunteers to knock on doors across the area, replicating the ground strategy that delivered a by-election victory in Gorton and Denton in February. The wider political landscape has changed notably since that result, however. Shortly after Gorton and Denton, YouGov polling placed the Greens at a peak of 21%, briefly ahead of Labour. By contrast, the most recent equivalent YouGov survey recorded Green support at 11%, leaving the party 16 points behind Labour.
- Post-Gorton peak
- 21 %
- Most recent poll
- 11 %
Backlash over party conference vote
Polanski faces voters following internal turmoil generated by the Green Party conference held last weekend in Brighton. Party members voted directly to approve a policy asserting that "Zionism is racism" and calling for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. The adoption of the motion prompted condemnation and widespread splits across the party's elected ranks. Four of the five sitting Green members of parliament publicly condemned the policy, while multiple local councillors and party members distanced themselves from the text or resigned their party memberships. Polanski faced criticism for refusing to declare whether he endorsed the resolution, having departed the conference venue before the vote took place to return to campaigning in London.
High stakes for Andy Burnham
The north London vote provides an early test for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who succeeded Starmer in July after Labour poll ratings dropped under the previous administration. Burnham used his address at Labour's annual conference last month to introduce a more ambitious, left-leaning policy platform aimed at revitalising voter enthusiasm. Holborn and St Pancras saw Starmer's winning margin fall from nearly 28,000 votes in 2019 to 11,500 votes in the 2024 general election under pressure from the Greens and an independent challenger. A reduced margin on Thursday could bring an early close to Burnham's honeymoon period as prime minister. Labour strategists remain focused on protecting inner-city seats from Green advances, after the Greens gained control of several London councils during local elections in May.
