Democrats win control of Congress in US midterms, a blow to Trump and his party

Democrats take both chambers

Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections held on Tuesday, 3 November, ending the Republican majority in Congress. Media estimates on Wednesday gave Democrats at least 228 of the 435 House seats, a majority of ten, while full results were not yet known. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said his party had hoped to retake the chamber and called a figure of 250, perhaps 255, seats an impressive result. Donald Trump said he was prepared to accept the outcome, and The Washington Post described the scale of the Republican loss as the largest of its kind since 1974.

What Republicans blame

Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the war in Iran was the reason for the defeat and said everyone knew why Republicans had lost. He said he had spoken with pollsters who warned that many voters who backed Trump and Vance in 2024 were angry and planned to vote for Democrats, and he suggested the party's economic message had not been sharp enough at the end. Vance listed four answers that pollsters said could win those voters back: ending the war, focusing on cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and changing the relationship with Israel. Trump said he believed the war in Iran was 'partially' responsible for the loss and that the outcome would have been different had his name been on the ballot. He also said the result had nothing to do with his cabinet and that the Democrats had run a strong campaign.

Who voted and why

An Associated Press poll of more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states found that young voters leaned strongly toward Democrats, with their support far exceeding what that age group gave Kamala Harris in 2024. Voters under 30 made up only about one in ten of the national electorate. About half of under-30 voters said they were angry about the current state of the United States, compared with about a third of voters aged 65 and older. About six in ten under-30 voters said opposing Trump was one reason for their House vote, against about half of voters aged 30 to 44 and about four in ten of those 45 and older. Hispanic voters and Black voters, including Black men, also moved toward Democrats after leaning toward Trump in 2024. In the Texas Senate race, the poll found that about six in ten Hispanic voters in the state backed James Talarico.

Musk's spending and the Texas race

Elon Musk gave about 400 million euros to Republican causes, according to funding data cited in the reporting, and some analysts estimated the sum at about 474 million dollars. He contributed 168 million dollars to the Senate Leadership Fund, which supported Republican Senate candidates, including indirectly Ken Paxton in Texas. Total campaign advertising was estimated at about 11 billion dollars. Despite this money, Democrats won control of Congress and defeated Musk-backed candidates in Ohio, Maine and Texas. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico beat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a Senate seat, a result that carried particular weight for Musk, who moved his residence and several of his companies' headquarters to Texas after the pandemic. Talarico described the contest as David against Goliath. In the days before the vote, Musk used X to warn that a Democratic victory would mean the end of democracy and a permanent one-party state.

Reactions and what comes next

The White House posted a message on X reading 'Warning: Trump remains your president', alongside a photograph of Trump in the Oval Office. In Europe, governments in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland and the Czech Republic called the Republican defeat an opportunity for the world to unite around shared concerns. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham linked the cost of living to the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and said progress would depend on easing the Middle East conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said the result would change the balance of power in the United States but was not expected to bring substantial changes to transatlantic relations. From January, when the new Congress convenes, Democrats will be able to investigate the government, block nominations and condition spending. Trump keeps his veto power, which makes clashes likely in the second half of his term. Expresso recalled that Barack Obama suffered a crushing midterm defeat in 2010 and George W. Bush in 2006.