CDU leads Lower Saxony exit polls at 27.7% as AfD rises after Saxony-Anhalt win
Exit polls in Lower Saxony place the CDU ahead with 27.7% of the vote, while the AfD climbs to 16.5% following its earlier victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
Lower Saxony exit poll results
Exit polls conducted by Infratest dimap for broadcaster NDR in Lower Saxony show the Christian Democratic Union leading with 27.7% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party placed second with 24.5%, while Alternative for Germany took 16.5%, up from 4.6% in the previous election. The Greens received 13.6%, Die Linke reached 5.9%, and the Free Democratic Party took 3.6%, leaving them in danger of failing to enter the state legislature. Official voter turnout stood at 50.67% by 16:30 local time, higher than the participation rate recorded five years prior. In Wolfsburg, home to Volkswagen, CDU Mayor Dennis Weilmann won re-election in the first round by a narrow margin.
- CDU
- 27.7 %
- SPD
- 24.5 %
- AfD
- 16.5 %
- Greens
- 13.6 %
- Die Linke
- 5.9 %
- FDP
- 3.6 %
Impact of the Saxony-Anhalt election
The vote in Lower Saxony followed the state election held one week earlier in Saxony-Anhalt, where AfD secured 43.8% of the vote under lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund. The CDU, which had governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002, dropped from 37% to 17.2%. AfD requires three additional votes to form a state governing coalition, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance expressed openness to negotiations. Former chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the AfD vote share during a public appearance.
Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted in parliament that the Saxony-Anhalt defeat shook his party to its foundations. Following the result, counter-demonstrations defending open society, free media, and minority rights took place in Magdeburg and other German cities.
- AfD
- 43.8 %
- CDU
- 17.2 %
Debate over federal leadership and the firewall
The state results intensified internal party discussions concerning federal governance and the political firewall separating mainstream parties from the far right. Lower Saxony CDU leader Sebastian Lechner acknowledged public dissatisfaction directed toward the federal coalition in Berlin, but urged the party to defer leadership questions until after upcoming elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
Afterwards we will discuss in the CDU, as a team, how we can offer tangible relief to the people and implement policy that will bring economic recovery.
Academic Klaus Dicke noted that Merz's decision in early 2025 to pass migration measures with AfD backing undermined the political firewall. Lechner stated that the CDU faces a credibility problem that members must address calmly in the coming weeks.
Repercussions for European diplomacy and budgets
The electoral pressure on Merz arrives as the European Union manages defense policy, Ukraine assistance, and the next multiannual budget. Gesine Weber, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies in Zurich, assessed that Merz will direct more political focus toward domestic stability, reducing bold federal initiatives in European negotiations. Berlin has maintained a frugal stance in Brussels, demanding significant reductions to the European Commission's €2 trillion EU budget proposal. European diplomats expect that domestic vulnerability will limit the German government's ability to compromise on EU financial and security files ahead of national elections scheduled across France, Italy, Spain, and Poland within the next year.
