Poland braces for extreme heatwave with temperatures up to 38°C, storms in west
The IMGW has issued tier III heat alerts for southeastern Poland, with temperatures forecast to reach 38°C, while western regions face severe thunderstorms with hail and wind gusts up to 115 km/h.
Heat warnings blanket Poland
The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has issued heat warnings of all three tiers for nearly the entire country. The highest, tier III, covers nine voivodeships in the southeast: lubelskie, świętokrzyskie, opolskie, śląskie, małopolskie, podkarpackie, dolnośląskie, łódzkie, and southern parts of mazowieckie and lubuskie. There, daytime temperatures will exceed 34°C, with official forecasts reaching up to 38°C. Some numerical models, including the American GFS, suggest that thermometers in the southeast could hit 40–41°C on Wednesday and Thursday. The European ECMWF model indicates a maximum of 38°C, with a margin of error of ±2°C, meaning actual readings could range from 36°C to 40°C.
We are entering a difficult tropical episode for the inhabitants of Central Europe.
Tier II warnings apply to małopolskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, lubuskie, and large parts of zachodniopomorskie, podlaskie, and mazowieckie, where temperatures will reach 30–34°C, locally up to 36°C on Wednesday. Tier I alerts cover the southern fringes of pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie, and central-eastern zachodniopomorskie, with highs above 30°C. The heat warnings are active from Tuesday at 12:00; tier I expires Wednesday at 19:00, while tiers II and III remain in force until Thursday at 20:00.
- Heat warnings activate; tier III in southeast Poland
- Storm warnings begin in western Poland
- Peak heat in Croatia; red alerts expand to inland Dalmatia
- Heat warnings expire; cold front brings storms and cooler air
Storms threaten western regions
Alongside the heat, IMGW has issued storm warnings for western Poland. A tier I alert covers the western part of zachodniopomorskie and the northeastern edge of lubuskie. The rest of lubuskie and the northwestern corner of dolnośląskie are under a tier II warning. Forecasters expect intense rainfall of 35 to 55 mm, wind gusts reaching 75 to 115 km/h, and locally hail. The storm warnings are active from Tuesday at 15:00 until the end of the day.
Croatia under red alert
The Polish embassy in Zagreb has warned Polish tourists in Croatia about extreme heat. Red alerts are in effect from 3 to 5 August for the Istrian peninsula, the Rijeka area, the northern coast up to Paklenica National Park, and the islands of Krk, Cres, Rab, Lošinj, and Pag. The rest of the Adriatic coast from Zadar to Dubrovnik is under orange alerts. On 5 August, the red alert will expand to inland Dalmatia, including Krka National Park, and continental Croatia from Karlovac to the Serbian border. Air temperatures will exceed 39°C, with high humidity and no wind intensifying the felt heat.
Tropical air mass fuels the heat
The heatwave is driven by a stream of tropical air flowing into Poland from the southwest. The air mass is heavily saturated with moisture, creating oppressive, muggy conditions.
The air flowing into Poland will be humid, making it not only hot but also muggy.
In Wielkopolska, temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from 31°C in the north to 35–36°C in the south and southeast. The combination of high humidity and intense surface heating will also fuel the development of thunderstorm clouds, though their occurrence will be limited. Any storms that do form could be violent.
Relief expected Thursday
The current heatwave is forecast to break on Thursday when a cold front moves from the northwest to the southeast. The front will bring severe storms, mainly across central and eastern Poland, before ushering in cooler air. The last comparable heatwave occurred at the end of June 2026, when Słubice recorded a record high of 40.5°C on 28 June.
