Europe still has no seat at Ukraine talks as Merz warns of a hard winter

Europe still without a seat at the table

Friedrich Merz used the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Dublin on the evening of 12 November to warn that Ukraine faces a very hard winter. Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj had travelled to Dublin to consult partners on the situation and the next steps. Diplomacy has been intense, with talks in the week of 9 November and a US envoy trip to Moscow on 12 November, yet no peace is in sight. The open question is who negotiates with whom, and how seriously each side is pursuing a deal.

Speaking of Ukraine, Merz said:

“It will be a very hard winter for the country. It depends on Europeans standing together.”

Talks in Abu Dhabi and Moscow

In the week of 9 November, the United States hosted several days of talks with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Abu Dhabi. Representatives of the E3 (Britain, Germany and France), NATO and the European Commission were on site without sitting at the table. On Thursday, 12 November, the US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow and then flew to Ireland to meet the Europeans gathered there. Focus reports that these are the first talks between Russia and Ukraine under US supervision in more than eight months, and that Witkoff has said Europeans will take part in the next round.

The diary ahead is crowded. The APEC summit in Shenzhen opens in the week of 16 November 2026, with Donald Trump and Wladimir Putin set to attend. The G20 summit in Miami follows in mid-December 2026, where Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping and the major European leaders, Chancellor Merz included, could all meet.

Who speaks for Europe

Focus puts Europe's problem bluntly: EU institutions have given just under 100 billion euros to Ukraine since early 2022, and Germany around 30 billion euros, yet that money has not bought a place at the table. Armin Laschet, a former CDU party leader who chairs the foreign affairs committee, listed possible formats on Maybrit Illner, among them E3, E4, E5, the Coalition of the Willing and the Nordic Council. He also raised Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas as possible names for the EU. Former foreign minister Ursula Plassnik, speaking on ZIB 2, said Europe cannot offer a peace plan to an aggressor that wants the other side to capitulate. She called Sergei Lawrow's jibe that EU officials would only sit in the hotel lobby pure and blatant cynicism.

A divided studio

On Maybrit Illner on 12 November, the panel included Laschet, ZDF correspondent Katrin Eigendorf, political scientist Christian Mölling and BSW chair Amira Mohamed Ali. Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba (2020 to 2024) joined live. Mohamed Ali argued that the roughly 100 billion euros Germany has provided so far should go to needs at home and that more weapons were the wrong path, while she backed humanitarian winter aid. Kuleba rejected this sharply:

“Those who argue the best way to end the war is to cut support for Ukraine are actually saying they want more civilians in Ukraine to die.”

Mölling, who said Europe does not speak with one voice, offered a blunt assessment of the negotiations:

“From Putin's perspective, it is going well for him.”

Competing agendas

According to Focus, Mohamed Ali believes that ruling out Ukraine's NATO membership is the decisive obstacle, and that doing so would open a door toward peace. Wirtschafts Woche assesses that Ukraine doubts Russia's willingness to negotiate in earnest, yet wants to show the White House it is ready to talk in order to keep US support. Donald Trump is described as weary of the conflict and eager for a win after the midterms went badly for him, seeking peace and calm at almost any price. Russia, the same analysis says, uses the moment to argue that it is merely defending itself against encirclement by NATO and the West.