Wildfires across France, Spain and Greece displace 300,000, push up olive oil and wine prices

Scale of the fires

By July 28, a fire west of Bordeaux had burned nearly 45,000 hectares, almost three times France's annual average of 15,000 hectares over the past two decades. Fires also advanced close to Madrid and swept through Greece, where a blaze near Porto Germeno was expected to be classified as a megafire. Last year the EU saw more than 1 million hectares burn; 2026 could break that record. The continent is heating faster than any other, and fire-friendly weather has been increasing for 40 years.

Evacuations and casualties

More than 300,000 people have been evacuated across the affected countries. In France, about 220,000 were forced to leave, with many allowed to return on Monday after the largest wildfire on record was contained. The fire destroyed 183 homes in Le Porge. Four men died fighting the fires in France and another 150 were injured. In Greece, five people lost their lives, including two crew members in a mid-air helicopter collision. More than 1,000 were evacuated west of Athens, with over 250 rescued by boats from beaches.

We faced one of the worst fire crises in recent memory.

Insurance exposure

France's total losses could reach €10 billion to €15 billion, with insured losses running into several billion euros, according to Morningstar DBRS. Private insurers are expected to absorb most of the cost because wildfires are not covered by the state-backed natural disaster scheme. Fitch Ratings said the impact on 2026 earnings should remain limited unless fires spread to major urban areas. Emergency measures allow evacuees to claim hotel stays for up to three weeks. Nicolas Mulac, a pharmacist from Marcheprime, filed a claim after fleeing on July 24.

This might be a real threat to the industry if you have a wildfire out of control, reaching a medium-sized city like Bordeaux. That is a completely different scale of losses.

Food prices set to climb

Farmers across Europe warn of slumping production and rising prices. Légumes de France said thousands of tonnes of vegetables worth tens of millions of euros had been lost, with output of some crops halved. In Champagne, the earliest harvest ever is expected around August 15, with grape yields about 10% smaller than last year. Spain's cereal crop is forecast to drop from 24 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes. The EU cut its harvest outlook for sunflowers by 7%, grain maize by 6%, and potatoes and soya beans by 3%. Olive oil prices, already elevated, are set to rise further as groves burn in Greece, Italy and Portugal. Direct fire damage hit orchards, vineyards and greenhouses, affecting citrus fruits, avocados, almonds and vegetables.

Technology on the fire line

In France's Gironde region, AI-assisted cameras have replaced human lookouts in watchtowers, detecting fires up to 20 km away and distinguishing smoke from dust with near certainty. Chief sergeant Guillaume Millet of the CFDT union said the switch had reduced false alarms. The cameras now monitor forests that were previously watched by students during the summer months.

The big change, especially in my département, is that now we've got cameras assisted by artificial intelligence to watch the forest and see where fires are starting.

Tourism under strain

Holidaymakers faced disruption as temperatures soared to 40°C in mainland Spain, 39°C in Italy and 35°C in France. Campsites near Bordeaux remained closed, and the Provence fire was still not contained on Monday. Thunderstorms were forecast for parts of France on Tuesday, offering some relief but also raising the risk of flash floods. In Greece, 500 firefighters halted the advance of a large blaze west of Athens, though authorities warned that surrounding areas remained at high risk.