Ethiopian forces close in on Mekelle as ties with Eritrea and Egypt rupture

Diplomatic rupture across the Horn of Africa

Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea collapsed on 1 October 2026 after the Ethiopian government ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara. Addis Ababa declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata and gave them 48 hours to leave the country, citing activities that posed a threat to national security. In response, Eritrea severed all formal diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, ending relations restored in 2018 under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after the 1998–2000 border conflict. The diplomatic crisis widened to Egypt when Ethiopian authorities expelled an Egyptian diplomat on a 48-hour deadline. Egypt immediately retaliated by declaring an Ethiopian embassy counsellor in Cairo persona non grata with 48 hours to leave, with an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson calling the move justified reciprocity.

The Commission urges the three countries to address their differences through established diplomatic channels and peaceful dialogue.

Military offensive along the northern front

The political fallout coincided with renewed fighting between the Ethiopian National Defence Force, supported by allied regional militias, and forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Federal troops captured the southern Tigray town of Alamata on 28 September before advancing north toward Korem, where heavy fighting occurred on 30 September roughly 100 kilometres south of Mekelle. By 2 October, pro-government forces moved within striking distance of the regional capital of Mekelle, leading local residents to shutter commercial banks and retail shops. Ground combat also spread to the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. In Afar, pro-government militias drove rebel units out of the town of Erebti and pushed them back toward the regional boundary, while regional reporting indicated that the renewed clashes have left hundreds dead and thousands wounded.

Aerial strikes and explosions in Addis Ababa

Security measures tightened across central Ethiopia following suspected drone strikes that reached deep beyond the northern front line. A drone strike struck the Bishoftu military air base, situated 40 kilometres outside the Ethiopian capital, during the final week of September. Residents in Addis Ababa then reported three consecutive overnight explosions near the armed forces general headquarters between Wednesday and Thursday. Ethiopian federal authorities implemented a ban on civilian drone operations across the capital in response to the incidents. Another explosion was reported near national defence headquarters in Addis Ababa on 2 October, indicating expanded operational reach by rebel forces compared to the 2020–2022 war.

Strategic disputes and regional rivalries

The conflict reflects deep geopolitical friction involving neighbouring states across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has formally accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of providing military and logistical support to the TPLF rebel coalition, an allegation that all three governments deny. Although Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia during the 2020–2022 civil war, relations deteriorated after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began demanding sovereign maritime access, raising fears in Asmara over the Red Sea port of Assab. Sudan faces its own internal conflict, in which Ethiopia is accused of aiding the Rapid Support Forces while the Sudanese Armed Forces maintain ties with Tigrayan elements. Furthermore, Cairo has forged closer ties with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River.

The TPLF is silently allied with its former foe, Eritrea, with supply lines chiefly secured through Tigray's northern border.