The WMO expects sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Niño-3.4 region to reach about 3.8 degrees above the long-term average from November 2026 to January 2027, with a peak around December.
The anomaly rose from 1.6 degrees in June to 2.5 degrees in August, while the previous three-month record of 2.6 degrees dates from winter 2015/16.
Tom Fletcher said more than 50 million dollars has been mobilised via the OCHA central emergency fund for eleven countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
Citing UN figures, the reporting says up to 50 million people could face additional hunger, and the African Development Bank puts costs for African states at 10 to 20 billion US dollars.
Together with climate change, El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year since measurements began, according to the WMO warning.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Wednesday, 21 October, that the El Niño now developing in the Pacific could strengthen further in the coming months and possibly exceed the measurement scales used over the past four decades. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo presented the new seasonal climate forecast at a press briefing in Geneva. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the core region of an El Niño, rose from 1.6 degrees above the long-term average in June to 2.5 degrees in August, according to WMO figures. For October to December the agency expects an anomaly of almost 3.7 degrees, and for November to January about 3.8 degrees, with the peak expected around December. Calling for a coordinated response, Saulo said:
“We cannot stop El Niño, but we can prevent many of its most serious human consequences.”
The previous record for a three-month average is 2.6 degrees, measured in the winter of 2015/16, according to the WMO. Earlier record years reached values of around three degrees. A phase is classed as El Niño once temperatures run 0.5 degrees above normal, and such episodes usually recur every two to seven years and last nine to twelve months. Saulo explained that El Niño does not create new heat but releases heat the ocean has already stored. Combined with human-caused climate change, the phenomenon could make 2027 the hottest year since measurements began.
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Central America is already suffering drought, with crops and animals dying, according to Bayerischer Rundfunk. The WMO expects rising risk of heavy rain and flooding in East Africa through the December rainy season. In southern Africa dryness is forecast from November, just as planting begins. Southeast Asia faces heat, rain shortfalls and a growing wildfire risk, while Central America, the southern Caribbean and parts of the Amazon basin should prepare for drought. More rain is expected in the northwest of the United States and in southern South America, and Saulo cited the floods in Chile and the Paraná basin as examples of what is already happening.
UN emergency relief coordinator Tom Fletcher joined Saulo in calling for states, development banks and international financial institutions to release money before damage occurs rather than after. Fletcher said El Niño will strike Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific region with extreme heat, drought and flooding. He said the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has already mobilised more than 50 million dollars from its central emergency fund for eleven countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. Up to 50 million people could face additional hunger, and the African Development Bank estimates the costs for African states alone at 10 to 20 billion US dollars. Saulo said many regions still have time to prepare, but that the window for action will not stay open indefinitely.
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The World Meteorological Organization says the El Niño now building in the Pacific could strengthen in the coming months, with sea temperatures forecast up to 3.8 degrees above the long-term average, while UN relief chiefs urge funding before damage occurs.
AI text based on reports by Bayerischer Rundfunk, Le Soir, BFMTV and other publishers. Published .