El Niño warming disrupts Pacific fisheries and exposes 25.8 million Latin American children to crisis

Marine ecosystems and artisanal fisheries

Ocean warming linked to El Niño has altered marine ecosystems along Latin America's Pacific coastline, driving key species such as tuna, anchovies, and snappers toward deeper, cooler waters. In Ecuador, a research mission from Guayaquil's Polytechnic University led by oceanographer Jonathan Cedeño found sea surface temperatures had risen by 2.5 to 3°C, with increases reaching up to 6°C at depths of 40 meters over a ten-week period. These thermal shifts have depleted coastal stocks in Ecuador, Peru, Panama, and Guatemala, forcing artisanal crews to travel farther out to sea or remain docked in port. In Santa Rosa, Ecuador, skippers reported returning with minimal catches after full nights on the water, unable to find larger bonito or albacore tuna. In Panama, artisanal union leader Jesús Morales reported that mounting operational costs make regular trips financially unsustainable.

We can't keep losing money.

Regional drought and water stress

On land, shifting weather patterns have triggered severe hydrological disruptions across Central and South America. In Honduras, where 80% of the national territory is under red alert, the capital city of Tegucigalpa has recorded its driest year on record, instituting water rationing schedules every 12 days. In Guatemala, prolonged rainfall deficits threaten staple maize and bean harvests, compounding vulnerability in a country with high chronic childhood malnutrition. Further south, reduced precipitation has prompted transit restrictions in the Panama Canal and lowered river levels across the Amazon basin in Brazil, isolating riverine and indigenous communities from basic food supplies and medical services. In parts of Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, and Venezuela, shrinking water reservoirs have elevated wildfire hazards and strained urban utilities.

Humanitarian risks for children

According to a report from the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), 25.8 million children across Latin America face mounting hazards from drought, heavy rains, and degraded access to essential services. The agency projects that at least 9 million children will require humanitarian assistance as agricultural losses and logistical disruptions take hold. Lenay Alexandra Blason, regional emergency advisor for UNICEF, noted particular concern for vulnerable zones such as the Central American Dry Corridor, Cuba, and Haiti. Roberto Benes, UNICEF regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean, warned that extreme climate shocks compound existing inequalities across the region.

A single large storm can cause widespread destruction and alter the lives of hundreds of thousands of children.

Forecasts and emergency funding

Data from the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service recorded global average sea surface temperatures at 21.07°C in August 2026, matching March 2024 as the highest on record. Forecasts from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project El Niño to reach peak intensity between November 2026 and January 2027, with the broadest regional effects expected between October and December. The overall climatic anomaly is projected to persist through March 2027. To address immediate emergency needs across Latin America, UNICEF requested $53.8 million in humanitarian assistance, but secured only half of that sum by June 30.