Investigative reports reveal Egyptian intelligence warned Israel 11 days before 7 October

The secret flight to Tel Aviv

On 26 September 2023, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel landed at Ben-Gurion airport for an unannounced 67-minute stopover to deliver a direct warning to Israeli officials. According to an investigation by The Atlantic, Kamel stated that Hamas was mobilizing for a large-scale offensive and that the window to avert a disaster was closing rapidly. Kamel recommended that Israel ease economic pressure and offer concessions in the Gaza Strip to defuse tensions. While Kamel did not provide specific operational dates or tactical plans, officials from seven countries confirmed that foreign governments were aware of the visit. A former Israeli government official briefed on the meeting summarized the core message delivered by the Egyptian spy chief.

If you do not change course, Gaza will explode in your face.

Earlier warnings from Gaza

The Egyptian mission followed a separate back-channel warning delivered earlier that month. In an interview with Egyptian broadcaster Al-Ghad, former senior Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida stated that he met Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on 14 September 2023. During that conversation, Sinwar told him that progress was insufficient and instructed him to relay a direct threat to Israeli contacts.

Before the end of September, we will put cards on the table that will cause an earthquake in negotiations, and they should prepare to empty their prisons.

Abu Zaida consulted United Arab Emirates-based Palestinian figure Mohammed Dahlan and his deputy Samir Mashharawi before passing the message in Hebrew and Arabic to Israeli defense officials. Within thirty minutes, Israeli security contacts summoned Abu Zaida to an emergency meeting in the coastal city of Ashkelon to evaluate Sinwar's demeanor and intent. Around the same period, United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan placed a phone call to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding regional security risks, as reported by Haaretz and The New York Times. The New York Times reported that Netanyahu dismissed regional alerts lacking tactical details and rejected offensive actions in Gaza to preserve diplomatic normalization talks with Saudi Arabia.

Electoral fallout and government response

Eleven days after Kamel's visit, Hamas carried out coordinated incursions into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. The subsequent Israeli military campaign in the enclave has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.

The publication of these intelligence warnings entered the final days of Israel's parliamentary election campaign ahead of voting on 27 September. Opposition lawmakers are using the disclosures to demand the establishment of an official state commission of inquiry, characterizing the failure to act on regional intelligence as unforgivable political blindness. The prime minister's office categorically denied that Netanyahu received any advance warnings from Egyptian intelligence before 7 October 2023, dismissing the reporting as manipulation and reiterating that no direct or indirect meetings with Kamel took place.