UNHCR: nearly 90 million displaced people live in countries exposed to climate risks

Three-quarters of displaced people live in climate-exposed countries

The UN refugee agency published a report on Friday, 6 November, warning that nearly 90 million refugees and other forcibly displaced people face severe climate risks. About three-quarters of them live in countries rated highly or extremely vulnerable to climate change, where prolonged droughts, deadly floods and extreme heat are already hitting. The document was released days before the COP31 climate conference opens in Antalya, Turkey. People who fled conflict, violence and persecution now find themselves in places already struggling with these weather extremes. Anton Leis Garcia, the agency's assistant high commissioner for operations, framed the problem in stark terms.

“Forced to flee conflicts they did not cause, they are now on the frontlines of a climate crisis they have contributed least to.”

Returns into climate-exposed countries

More than two-thirds of the refugees who went home during the first half of 2026 returned to countries highly vulnerable to climate hazards. That raises the risk that some will have to leave again. Syria is the clearest example. Nearly four million displaced people have recently gone back there, but declining groundwater and climate shocks are threatening their recovery. Flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and forced thousands of people out again. The report also describes a Sudanese woman who fled fighting in al-Fashir in June 2023 for the Farchana camp in eastern Chad, where sometimes a whole week passes without access to drinking water. As nearby riverbeds dry up, residents walk ever farther to fetch water.

Heat, floods and the finance gap

Looking ahead, UNHCR cites estimates that by 2050 a third of refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa could face at least 100 days of dangerous heat a year. The report says dangerous heat at Helaweyn in Ethiopia could persist for more than 200 days a year. Weather disasters have caused more than 255 million internal displacements over the past decade, around 70,000 a day. El Nino-linked flooding could lead to a further three million people being displaced in East Africa by the end of the year. Yet the most vulnerable countries receive around 10% of global climate finance, even though many of them host refugees.

What UNHCR wants from COP31

The agency is working with governments, development partners and the private sector to support refugees and the communities that host them. Refugees and host communities are already driving innovation, such as using renewable energy to tackle climate challenges. Garcia said climate change is no longer a distant threat for millions of people.

“For millions, climate change is not a distant threat. It is destroying shelters, undermining livelihoods and putting their hopes of rebuilding their lives at risk.”

At COP31, UNHCR hopes states will include refugees and displaced people in their national plans, funding plans and investments.