UNEP report: developing countries need 305 billion dollars a year for adaptation

A gap of about 305 billion dollars a year

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published its Adaptation Gap Report 2026 on Wednesday, 4 November, under the title 'Ready? Not'. The study measures how much money developing countries need to adapt to a warming climate, from sea walls and early warning systems to water-retention measures that protect harvests. Developing countries will need about 305 billion dollars a year by 2035 to build resilience and reduce risks. That estimate leaves out the needs of the private sector, so the overall total could be considerably higher.

The tripling pledge covers a fraction

Governments agreed at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, to triple international public finance for adaptation by 2035, a commitment anchored in the Global Mutirão outcome document. Even if that target is met, planned flows of 85 to 120 billion dollars a year would cover only 20% to 29% of estimated needs, after accounting for inflation. International public adaptation flows reached between 28.2 and 31.7 billion dollars in 2024, roughly 1 billion more than in 2023. UNEP says that growth is losing pace. Those flows remain well below the 40 billion dollars a year agreed at the Glasgow climate summit.

Annual need by 2035305

Tripled finance, low end85

Tripled finance, high end120

Annual need by 2035

305 USD billion

Tripled finance, low end

85 USD billion

Tripled finance, high end

120 USD billion

Data from the article text

Private costs and a shrinking US role

Pieter Pauw, a climate finance researcher at Eindhoven University of Technology and one of the report's authors, said the rising cost of climate change is not yet visible in the adaptation estimate but will grow over time. He said developing countries are not standing still and pointed to a renewed rise in the Dutch contribution. Pauw linked the overall shortfall to the loss of financial flows from the United States under Trump. UNEP's figures mainly count costs borne by governments, and the agency estimates the total is nearly twice as high once households and businesses are included.

Losses, heat and El Niño

The report points to heat waves in Western Europe in 2026 and flooding in Nepal as examples of severe climate impacts. It warns that El Niño could become the largest weather phenomenon ever observed. Figures cited in the report show that low and middle income countries accounted for 99% of the 765 million people recorded as affected by floods and landslides between 2020 and 2025. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the financing gap is measured not only in money but also in lives and lost prospects. He called for faster, simpler access to support for the most vulnerable people, along with stronger political will.

Next steps at COP31

Inger Andersen, UNEP's executive director, called on countries to focus on delivering the tripling goal at COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, which runs from 9 to 20 November. She said countries will need to go further to save lives, avoid losses and damages, and protect economies. The report also notes positive signs, including rising adaptation finance from multilateral development banks and growing finance flowing between countries of the Global South. An earlier UNEP Emissions Gap Report found that current climate policies put the world on course for 2.6 to 2.7 degrees of warming this century.