Democrats win Congress as oil prices fall and Vance blames Iran war for GOP losses

The midterm result

Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections on 3 November, ending Republican control of Congress for Trump's final two years in office. The BBC said the result left him with reduced power to govern, while the Independent reported Democratic wins in Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, states it described as long-time Republican strongholds. A New York Times/SNS survey from late October found that 73 percent of voters disapproved of Trump's handling of gas prices, and 69 percent were unhappy with the cost of living.

Leon Panetta, a former CIA director and former White House chief of staff under Bill Clinton, told LBC that voters had sent a clear check on the presidency. He said it was unclear how the war would end, and that Trump now faced a choice between negotiating an end to it or returning to bombing Iran.

“We're not sure how this war is going to end.”

Gas prices and the war

The national average gas price was $4.15 on Election Day, 3 November, up from $2.98 when Trump attacked Iran on 28 February, according to the motor club AAA. The Middle East conflict sharply curtailed oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which the Independent said effectively cut off 20 percent of the world's oil supply. GasBuddy head petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X in October that gas had stayed above $4 nationally for more days in 2026 than in any year on record. He told the Independent that every state saw gas prices on election day higher than ever before, making fuel a highly visible issue for voters.

2026-02-282.98

2026-11-034.15

2026-02-28

2.98 $

2026-11-03

4.15 $

Data from the article text

Vance, Trump and the war debate

Vance posted a long message on X on 4 November, the day after the vote, arguing that the war was the reason for the defeat and that any frank discussion of the way forward had to begin there. He also praised Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy for advocating a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. POLITICO reported that the US benchmark oil price fell $6 a barrel that day, bringing its decline to more than $16 since late October as fears of new strikes on Iran eased.

“The reason we lost is the war.”

Trump, speaking at the site of the future White House ballroom, said it was largely true that the war had hurt his party by pushing up petrol prices in the short term. He added that he would make the same decision again, because Iran must not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Tehran and Yemen

In Tehran, thousands of people joined a government-organized march on 4 November marking the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy. Protesters burned American and Israeli flags and chanted "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". Parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X that Americans had voted against the war, warning that Washington would learn Iran's answer came with a nightmare if it ignored the vote.

“Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.”

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, dismissed the idea that Washington would change its approach to the Islamic Republic. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis claimed without evidence that they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and several areas in the south of the country. Their military spokesperson Yahya Saree said a ballistic missile had caused damage to the airport, a claim the Associated Press could not verify, and the Saudi information ministry had not responded to a request for comment. Separately, the Israeli military said it struck two suspects in Lebanon, killing one person.

What comes next

Talks are ongoing that aim to prevent renewed fighting, and the region has been on edge for weeks over whether the US will resume full-scale military operations against Iran. POLITICO reported that Trump had previewed for weeks that he might try to finish the job with another round of strikes, but the Republican losses turned Vance against that idea. Panetta also said Democrats should focus on governing, citing the war along with inflation and cost-of-living prices. For now the oil selloff has eased fears of renewed strikes, while the question of whether Trump negotiates or escalates remains open.