Democrats take House and Senate in midterms, opening rifts in Trump's camp

Democrats take the House and Senate

Television networks gave the House majority to the Democrats at about 22:15 Washington time on election night, and projections gave them the Senate roughly an hour later. Republicans had started with 53 of the 100 Senate seats. Democrats took at least seven seats in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Maine. In Maine, Troy Jackson defeated Susan Collins, who had served in the Senate for almost three decades. Counting was still under way in Alaska and Mississippi, where Democratic candidates remain favoured. Reported turnout was a record for a midterm election.

In Texas, a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024, James Talarico, a former teacher aged 37, beat Ken Paxton in the Senate race, and Gina Hinojosa defeated the sitting governor Greg Abbott. Democrats won statewide elections in Texas for the first time since 1994.

Young and Hispanic voters turn away

About 70% of voters aged 18 to 29 chose a Democratic candidate in House races, according to an analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, based on post-election data from The Voter Poll. That figure measures votes cast, not pre-election intentions. The shift reached young men, white voters and those without a college degree, groups that had leaned toward Trump in 2024. Support for Democrats among Hispanic voters also rose compared with two years ago. Young voters make up roughly a tenth of the electorate, so their turnout alone does not decide the outcome. Democrats led among voters under 30 by 14 points in 2024, compared with 35 points in 2018.

201835

202414

2018

35 points

2024

14 points

Data from the article text

Republicans turn on their own

The Wall Street Journal named Trump the main architect of the defeat and described his second term as erratic and self-referential. The New York Post, part of Rupert Murdoch's media group, told the president to look in the mirror, and the Financial Times reported that the Murdoch empire appears to be preparing for life after Trump. Sean Hannity said the war in Iran had shaped the vote, putting it at 100%. Trump himself claimed the elections were rigged without saying which ones he meant.

At the Pentagon, Thomas Massie, an outgoing Republican congressman from Kentucky, plans to push an impeachment vote against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the week of 9 November 2026. Massie has said he would drop the articles only if Hegseth resigns. Trump is defending Hegseth while acknowledging that he has received complaints. Trump also called Hegseth potentially very popular as a senator from Tennessee, which has fuelled talk that Hegseth could take the seat Marsha Blackburn vacated after being elected governor.

Succession jockeying

Radio corridor reports put Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the verge of resigning, with the aim of leaving before the cost of the war damages his 2028 ambitions. Denials of those reports were categorical. Vice President JD Vance posted a long message on X that named the conflict as the cause of the electoral collapse. Conservative sources say Vance wants to present himself as leader of a 'new right' and to rally disappointed voters around the original America First promises: no foreign wars, support for families and tough borders.

Analysis: the coalition and the Iran war

Il Messaggero's analysis argued that muscular leaders have lost ground across the world, pointing to Bolsonaro in Brazil, Vucic in Serbia and Orban in Hungary, and noted that Netanyahu neither lost nor won in Israel. Commentators widely cited fuel prices above four dollars a gallon as the main catalyst. Il Giornale argued that Trump lost part of a coalition of Jacksonian nationalists and Jeffersonian fiscal conservatives, who were disappointed by the unfinished border wall, the unfulfilled promises on the FBI and deportations, and the Iran intervention, while Epstein files were released only after Congress imposed their publication by law. Paolo Crepet, speaking to Adnkronos, offered a psychological reading.

“He will never admit to having lost, because he is convinced he did not take a real blow from the midterm vote.”

Crepet also said the president's core circle was unlikely to change soon.