China's trade surplus tops $1 trillion for first ten months of 2026

Surplus crosses the trillion mark

China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, according to data the General Administration of Customs released on 10 November. The same period in 2025 produced a surplus of $964.8 billion. China's full-year surplus for 2025 was a record $1.2 trillion, so the 2026 pace is on course to exceed it. The New York Times reported that the $1 trillion milestone came about a month earlier than in 2025. The Financial Times described the surplus as likely to increase tensions with trade partners such as the EU.

Jan-Oct 2025964.8

Jan-Oct 20261,040

Jan-Oct 2025

964.8 USD bn

Jan-Oct 2026

1040 USD bn

Data from the article text

Exports and imports in October

Exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier, slightly below September's 36.3%. Imports grew faster, up 41.6% after 31% in September, and above the 33.9% median forecast of analysts polled by Bloomberg. The October surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September, as imports picked up. Imports from the United States, Southeast Asia and Africa rose between 35% and 42% in October, while imports from Europe fell, a sign of weak demand in China. Strong export growth this year has been driven by high-technology goods such as semiconductors and cars.

September 2026133.5

October 2026105.3

September 2026

133.5 USD bn

October 2026

105.3 USD bn

Data from the article text

What is driving the surplus

The Chinese government is relying on foreign demand to keep the economy on track for its growth target of 4.5 to 5% this year, according to dpa. Demand abroad for technology and electronics used to build AI infrastructure has stayed steady and supports Chinese exports. The New York Times reported that Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed international oil prices up, and that demand for Chinese solar panels and electric cars has grown. Overcapacity in many industries, high domestic savings and weak domestic demand keep pushing goods abroad. The NYT also reports that tax rebates for exporters now cost the government almost one-eighth of its tax revenues.

Forecasts and trade frictions

Dave Chia, an economist at Moody's Analytics, expects Chinese exports to stay strong for the rest of the year, led by electronics and cars. Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at the French bank Natixis, said the situation is not sustainable because some countries are already taking measures to protect their own industries. The EU has retaliated with tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and a quota on hybrid car imports, and has threatened more if exports to the continent keep rising. Emerging markets are adding trade defence measures against low-cost Chinese goods. A day before the data release, Washington and Beijing took steps to ease tariffs and limit the use of export controls through 10 January, putting into effect a September agreement ahead of a Washington summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Pressure on Chinese producers

Cinders Zhou sells glasses for a manufacturer in Linhai in Zhejiang province and says the slowdown in China's economy has intensified competition. He said the pressure has forced companies to compete on price. He also pointed to a growing shortage of product quality across the industry, as many producers make similar goods. Zhou's firm makes frames and lenses sold both in China and abroad. Overcapacity and weak domestic demand leave companies little room to raise prices in this environment.