China's exports rise 36.3% in September, far above forecasts, as trade surplus heads for record

Exports and imports beat forecasts

China's customs authority reported that exports in September rose 36.3 percent from a year earlier in US dollar terms, while imports climbed 31 percent. Analysts had expected export growth of roughly 25 percent and import growth of up to 24.5 percent, so both figures came in well above forecasts. The surplus for the month reached about $133 billion, or 119 billion euros. The export rise was the fastest since February, even as pressure from trading partners grows.

Artificial intelligence and new markets

Customs deputy minister Wang Jun named the boom in artificial intelligence as a driver of September exports. Demand rose for semiconductors, storage media and products used to store and transmit electricity. Strong international demand for Chinese AI technologies and applications is also cited as a driver of the trend. With US tariff barriers in place, Chinese companies are looking for new sales markets. The customs administration expects imports and exports to keep growing in the coming quarter, pointing to China's resilience in foreign trade.

Imbalance with Germany and the EU

Exports to Germany rose 31.4 percent in September, while imports from Germany grew just 0.1 percent. Exports to the EU as a whole climbed 25.3 percent, against 0.7 percent growth in imports from the bloc. Trade partners have criticised the imbalance for some time and want Beijing to lift domestic consumption. Weak domestic demand is linked to a property crisis, high youth unemployment and a thinly built social safety net. The EU accuses China of distorting competition through overcapacity, a charge Beijing rejects along with the 'China shock' depiction. The commerce ministry attributed export growth to economies of scale, innovation and foreign demand tied to the green transition and industrial development.

Car sector and the hybrid deal

Chinese car data from the CPCA show domestic sales of 1.63 million vehicles in September, down 28.1 percent from a year earlier. Manufacturers exported 923,000 vehicles in the same month, up 73.2 percent. Brussels and Beijing agreed on Friday, 9 October, to adjust imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles. Maros Sefcovic said imports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars would be cut by several million vehicles over the next four years. China will reduce the VAT export rebate for electric vehicles from 13 to 9 percent from 1 April 2027, a move announced in the week of 12 October, while the rate for petrol cars stays at 13 percent. The September export figures predate the current talks between China and the EU.

Surplus outlook and the EU summit

The trade surplus for the first three quarters reached $938.11 billion (836.9 billion euros). A Bloomberg estimate suggests the surplus will pass the $1 trillion mark in October, whereas in 2025 that first happened in November. China recorded a surplus of about $1.2 trillion across 2025. According to the International Monetary Fund, Asian economies absorbed about half of the diverted trade flows and the EU just under a fifth. EU leaders meet in Brussels on 15 and 16 October to discuss how the agreed rules would work and to weigh new protective instruments for the European economy.