Romania extends Cernavoda nuclear shutdown to 15 October over dropping Danube water levels

Extended outage at Cernavoda

Romania faces its most severe electricity supply challenge in decades following prolonged environmental complications on the Danube River. An energy command meeting at national transmission system operator Transelectrica confirmed that low river flows prevent the cooling and operation of both reactors at the Cernavoda nuclear power plant. Hydroelectric generation has fallen alongside the river levels, which dropped further at the plant intake over the last 24 hours. Ministry officials ruled out restarting either Unit 1 or Unit 2 before mid-October, though authorities assured households and industrial consumers that power rationing will not occur.

We are in the most difficult and challenging situation in recent decades from the point of view of adequacy. We still have both reactors shut down, and this significantly affects hydroelectric production. This situation is extending unexpectedly long. The bad news is that, at least for the next 10 days, according to forecasts presented by dispatchers, the Meteorological Institute, and the emergency team from the National Meteorological Administration, we face historically low Danube flow rates at the entry into the country. At Cernavoda, over the last 24 hours, the water level not only failed to rise but fell significantly. At least until 15 October, we are unable to reopen Units 1 and 2 at Cernavoda.

Grid stability and rising import volumes

National grid operators rely on alternative generation and regional interconnections to fill the deficit created by the nuclear outage and reduced hydroelectric output. While domestic demand is covered comfortably during daylight hours, evening consumption creates elevated load requirements across the transmission network. Domestic natural gas plants are running at maximum available capacity, even as scheduled maintenance proceeds at the Iernut facility. To provide additional baseload capacity, Complexul Energetic Oltenia will reconnect a power group at the Turceni coal plant on Thursday, allowing three units to operate in parallel. Cross-border electricity flows have stabilized without severe congestion from Hungary, but Romania expects high evening electricity inflows.

We are turning to imports that, at least in recent days and on certain days in October according to today's forecasts, will reach historical highs around 3,500 MW. I am referring to peak hours, mainly around 21:00. During the daytime, we do not have the slightest problem covering consumption.

European price risks and fuel constraints

The extended nuclear outage coincides with broader cost pressures across the continental energy market. Romanian officials reported that discussions at an informal meeting of European Union energy ministers in Dublin focused on preparing for high power costs across winter and spring 2027. Natural gas pricing at the Title Transfer Facility hub remains elevated, while European storage volumes remain below historical averages, particularly in industrial economies like Germany. Regional price dynamics remain tied to global gas logistics and maritime transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy investments and funding facilities

Despite immediate operational constraints, Romanian authorities pointed to structural investments as evidence of underlying power system resilience. The country has absorbed more than 800 million euros through its National Recovery and Resilience Plan, funding renewable generation, battery storage systems, four hydrogen facilities, and district heating plants in Arad and Constanța. Commitments under the 10-year Modernisation Fund have allocated roughly 10 billion euros out of a total 12 billion euro envelope through 2030. Officials plan to prioritize grid digitalization, cybersecurity, and renewable Contracts for Difference in the 2028–2034 cohesion policy cycle.