An internal assessment of the threat

The German armed forces now rate the threat of Russian sabotage against their own troops and facilities in Germany as 'considerable', the second-highest level on their assessment scale. According to documents seen by WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung, this is the first time the threat has been rated at that level. The paper judges that Moscow most likely intends to weaken political and societal support in Germany for Ukraine. It also states that the Bundeswehr may now be a direct target itself, not only an indirect one. The Leipzig incident could still be assessed as an indirect threat to the armed forces, but the paper says the Wunstorf case very likely means direct targeting of the Bundeswehr. Intelligence services expect a short-term worsening of the situation and actions in the near future.

Drone finds at Leipzig and Wunstorf

In early August, a drone carrying explosives failed in an attack at Leipzig/Halle airport, where the attack was presumably aimed at parked Ukrainian cargo aircraft. Three drones were found at or near the airport in August, two of them fitted with explosives. In mid-September, a farmer came across another drone near the Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, largely by chance. It resembled the Leipzig drone in design and was also loaded with explosives, according to the reporting. Technical analysis by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) indicates that the Wunstorf drone had lain near the base for about two years. Investigators assume it was meant for Bundeswehr aircraft rather than civilian cargo planes, as at Leipzig, though possibly Bundeswehr aircraft is their assessment.

Red line and warnings from Berlin

The internal paper, as described by Süddeutsche Zeitung, says Russia is reportedly prepared to attack German armed forces directly with sabotage. It argues that Russia's use of drones as a kinetic weapon has crossed a red line that had been anticipated until now, namely the intent to cause harm with kinetic and or lethal effect against Germany and the Bundeswehr. The paper describes the drone use as a weapon with potentially deadly effect. BND president Martin Jäger had already warned in early October of a violent conflict with Russia in which Germany finds itself. The assessment makes clear that the armed forces now count themselves among the possible targets of Russian action on German soil.