Flávio Bolsonaro leads Brazil presidential vote with 47% to force runoff with Lula

First-round voting results

Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, finishing ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took 45%. The outcome exceeded pre-election polling forecasts, which had anticipated Lula leading by approximately three percentage points in a field of 12 candidates. Because neither candidate achieved an absolute majority, both advance to a runoff election scheduled for 25 October 2026. In Brazilian electoral history, no candidate who won the first round has lost the general election, though the two-point margin marks the narrowest gap recorded between the top two contenders.

Right-wing gains in Congress

Bolsonaro's conservative Liberal Party emerged as the largest single party in both chambers of the National Congress. The party expanded its presence in the 81-seat Federal Senate from 15 to 28 seats, securing more than a third of the chamber in the largest single-party total since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. Projections show the Liberal Party also increased its representation in the lower house from 98 to 121 seats. When combined with allied center-right parties, conservative blocs are projected to hold more than 30 Senate seats and close to 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, alongside first-round gubernatorial victories in the country's largest states, including São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

Financial markets and fiscal proposals

Asset prices reacted positively on Monday following the first-round results. Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index gained more than 8% to surpass 205,000 points, while the Brazilian real gained roughly 4% against the US dollar and interest rate futures dropped. Corporate shares in retailer Magazine Luiza, stock exchange operator B3, and investment bank BTG Pactual each rose by more than 20%, though pulpmaker Suzano dropped as much as 8.5%. The market response reflected investor expectations around Bolsonaro's fiscal agenda, which proposes an adjustment worth 1.5% of GDP over 18 months through privatizations, asset sales, and tax break reviews. Thierry Larose, a portfolio manager at Vontobel, commented on the market movements.

We expect a strong rally across Brazilian assets.

Second-round campaign adjustments

Lula's campaign is reorganizing its outreach across battleground states and preparing for televised debates ahead of the second round. Workers' Party president Edinho Silva stated that the campaign aims to build broad coalitions while warning voters against Bolsonaro's program.

Now it is hand to hand. We will show Brazilians that Flávio Bolsonaro is dangerous and that he will not govern this country in a way that they see their lives improve.

In response to investor concerns over gross public debt, which rose by more than 10 percentage points of GDP to 82.9% during his current term, Lula is considering appointing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his next finance minister. Alckmin, a centrist two-term former governor of São Paulo who previously led the Development, Industry and Trade Ministry, would retain his vice-presidential post while taking charge of economic policy. Bolsonaro is focusing his efforts on consolidating congressional endorsements and regional party alliances before voting resumes on October 25.