Brazil prepares for presidential election as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro face tight first round

Parameters of the first round

More than 158 million registered voters in Brazil will head to the polls on Sunday, 4 October 2026, to vote in general elections. Polling stations will operate from 8:00 to 17:00 Brasilia time (11:00 to 20:00 GMT). In addition to the presidency, voters will select 27 governors, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, state lawmakers, and two-thirds of the Federal Senate. If no presidential contender wins more than 50% of the valid vote, the top two candidates will advance to a run-off scheduled for 25 October 2026. Twelve candidates remain on the presidential ballot following the withdrawal of Leonardo Avalanche.

Candidate rivalry and final campaign stops

The race centres on 80-year-old incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term after holding office from 2003 to 2011 and returning in 2023. Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence following his conviction for a coup plot after the 2022 vote. The traditional final television debate was cancelled after neither leading candidate attended, the first time in twenty years that a first round concluded without a direct broadcast debate between frontrunners. On Saturday, Lula will walk along Avenida Paulista in Sao Paulo, while Flavio Bolsonaro will tour the Campinas interior.

Flavio Bolsonaro characterised his lineage during campaign appearances in the final stretch.

Because I may be calmer, more serene and more composed. But Bolsonaro blood flows through my veins.

Bank Master investigation and polling shifts

Polling averages compiled before the vote place Lula ahead by three percentage points in the first round, while second-round simulations show Flavio Bolsonaro holding a 0.2 percentage point lead. On Polymarket betting markets on 2 October 2026, Flavio Bolsonaro held a 55% probability of winning the presidency compared to 45% for Lula. The contest has been shaped by revelations concerning Banco Master. On 13 May 2026, Intercept Brasil released audio of Flavio Bolsonaro requesting 134 million reais (22 million euros) from former bank president Daniel Vorcaro to fund a biographical film about Jair Bolsonaro. That leak preceded a five percentage point drop for Flavio Bolsonaro in an Atlas/Bloomberg survey. On 1 September 2026, a Federal Police report detailed a 131 million reais contract between the bank and the law firm of Viviane Barci, whose husband is Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

US relations and geopolitical tensions

The election carries broad implications for regional diplomacy and ties between Brasilia and Washington. Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, stated that a victory for Flavio Bolsonaro would represent a key component of conservative leadership aligned with Donald Trump in Latin America. On Thursday, 1 October, and Friday, 2 October, US President Donald Trump told reporters that he is following the Brazilian vote closely.

Brazil is a very important country. It is a great country. The people of Brazil are fantastic. It is a very important election.

On 2 October, the United States and Australia announced the closure of their embassies and consulates across Brazil, citing the safety and protection of citizens. Lula used his final rallies to criticise his opponent's alignment with foreign interests.

In this country there is no place for politicians who hoist the national flag by day and bow to the United States by night.