Brazil unveils two voluntary roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and end deforestation by 2030

Two roadmaps from the COP30 presidency

Brazil's COP30 presidency presented two roadmaps on Tuesday, 3 November, at the UN House in Brasília, the seat of the UN Development Programme in Brazil. Environment minister João Paulo Capobianco attended alongside former minister Marina Silva, who has just been elected a federal deputy. André Corrêa do Lago credited Silva with the idea, which first surfaced in a pre-COP speech in Brasília, of a roadmap for leaving fossil fuels behind.

Both documents are voluntary. Corrêa do Lago called them a contribution from the presidency because neither has a mandate from countries, and neither sets targets or deadlines for anyone. The presidency wrote them after the Belém summit left the question unresolved: a group of 80-odd countries wanted a roadmap in the negotiations, while about 80 others rejected the idea, so the presidency drafted the texts under its own responsibility.

What the fossil fuel roadmap proposes

The fossil fuel document runs to 182 pages and offers 'archetypes' so each state can plan its exit according to its own situation. It names no country and aims at net-zero emissions by 2050. It recommends that governments begin, from where they stand, to design their own mechanisms for reducing their economic dependence on coal, oil and gas. Brazil's government has said countries can start now without waiting for new technologies or economic changes.

The document suggests that countries review fossil fuel demand in transport, industry and construction, consider replacing it with low-emission energy systems, and cut tax incentives and investment in fossil fuels. Cutting oil and gas production only gains priority from 2031. The proposed calendar sets a first step by 2028, when countries should have drafted national roadmaps. Katrine Petersen of the think tank E3G said the COP31 presidency must carry the work forward and that Brazil, among others, must present its own national plans.

Deforestation and the 2030 horizon

The deforestation roadmap rests on three pillars: national forest action, international cooperation and finance. It also proposes incentives for forest management and the bioeconomy, with the aim of applying the measures by 2030. Efforts to curb deforestation face a chronic shortage of financing, and a UN report published in October warned that the Paris Agreement goal is moving further out of reach.

Both roadmaps will feed the second global stocktake, scheduled for 2028, the Paris Agreement mechanism for measuring progress in cutting emissions.

Doubts over timing and implementation

Imperial College London professor Joeri Rogelj called the roadmaps a step forward but limited.

“The roadmaps are valuable but fall short of clearly indicating the pace of change needed by including no timeline or key benchmarks.”

Corrêa do Lago defended the approach by describing the documents as tools for putting agreed targets into practice, not for new negotiations.

“They are documents of implementation.”

He said the work needs a different group of people from the negotiators, and he argued that finance, transport, energy and infrastructure ministries should take the roadmaps up. He added that governments should start acting rather than waiting.

“We do not need more negotiations. What we need is for governments to start acting.”

COP31 and what comes next

COP31 opens on 9 November in Antalya, Turkey, under the presidency of Murat Kurum, who is also Turkey's minister of environment, urbanisation and climate change. In September, Kurum told the UN that the COP31 agenda would focus on implementing existing agreements rather than new pledges.

Corrêa do Lago said the roadmaps must be updated because the data will change, but he did not say who would continue the work. First, he said, people have to read the document, absorb it and react to it. Oil-producing countries have shown reluctance to adopt measures that could hit a major source of revenue, and the roadmaps remain voluntary.