Lula and Bolsonaro's son launch polarized Brazilian presidential campaigns

Campaign launch

Brazil's official presidential campaign opened on August 16, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holding rival rallies in a deeply polarized race ahead of the October 4 election. Lula, 80, addressed supporters at the Vila Euclides football stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city in São Paulo state where his political career began as a metalworker and union leader in the 1970s. Bolsonaro, 45, launched his bid at a rally on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro. About 13 candidates are contesting the first round, but Lula and Bolsonaro leave the rest polling in single digits.

Polling and electorate

A Quaest poll released on Friday, August 14, showed Lula with 43% of vote intention against Bolsonaro's 40% in an expected runoff scenario. Both frontrunners face rejection rates exceeding 50%, making the narrow pool of independent voters decisive, a segment where Bolsonaro has gained ground. Women represent 53% of Brazil's 158 million registered voters and lean majority toward Lula, having contributed to his narrow 2022 victory.

Lula's platform

Lula is seeking a fourth term, which he has described as his final campaign. During his third term, he has been credited with expanding social programs, overhauling the tax system, and reducing deforestation in the Amazon. He now frames the election as a defense of Brazilian sovereignty against US tariffs and pressure from President Donald Trump, a Bolsonaro family ally. On Friday, Lula said he wanted to tell Trump not to meddle in Brazil's affairs, especially regarding the election, warning that if Trump did meddle, he would lose. He pledged to increase defense spending, improve education and healthcare, and develop Brazil's rare earth deposits, which he described as the world's second largest after China's.

They ask me why I want a fourth term. Because, as long as I am alive, I will not allow the right, responsible for 400,000 covid deaths through irresponsibility, to return to power.

Bolsonaro's challenge

Flávio Bolsonaro was thrust into the race after his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was jailed for attempting a coup against Lula following his 2022 election defeat. The younger Bolsonaro has styled himself as a "more moderate" version of his father while leveraging the elder Bolsonaro's continued popularity. He encouraged supporters to wear t-shirts bearing his father's image at the Copacabana rally. He attacked Lula's government as corrupt, citing alleged irregularities under investigation involving Lula's son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha," and suggesting links between the federal government and organized crime.

It is a government marked by corruption (...) corruption has reached Lula's office.

Geopolitical backdrop and voter fatigue

The campaign unfolds under the shadow of Trump, who has backed conservative candidates in recent elections across Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Lula and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum represent the last left-wing governments in Latin America. Lula returned to office in 2023 after spending 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that the supreme court later quashed. Many Brazilian voters express disillusionment with both frontrunners.

The campaign is really weak. The presidential candidates, they're all bad. I won't vote for Lula, I won't vote for Bolsonaro. I don't even know what I am going to do!