National Education Report 2026: 24% of ninth-graders miss math minimum, social inequality unchanged

Germany’s biennial education report 'Bildung in Deutschland 2026', released in Berlin on Monday, shows that falling birth rates are beginning to ease some capacity pressures, yet the school system remains stuck in a crisis of declining basic skills, persistent social inequality, and uncoordinated reforms. The report, compiled by the DIPF Leibniz Institute for Educational Research, draws on official statistics and surveys across early childhood, school, vocational training, and higher education.

Demographic shift reaches daycare and schools

For the first time, the number of children in daycare fell nationwide in 2024, driven by a birth slump that had already affected the East since 2020. In West Germany, declines now show up among children under three. From the 2027/28 school year, primary school pupil numbers will start falling, partly due to lower immigration. However, the report warns that shrinking cohorts do not automatically relieve the system: enrolment rates are still rising, and gaps in care for under-threes persist, particularly in the West, where the discrepancy between demand and supply stands at 23 percentage points.

Core competencies in decline

One of the most striking findings is the steep increase in the share of ninth-graders who miss the minimum standard in mathematics. The figure rose from 16 percent in 2012 to 24 percent in 2024, meaning almost a quarter of those aiming for a Realschulabschluss now fall short. Reading and science results are also trending downward.

This points to long-term structural problems in securing these competencies and thus a central weakness of the education system.

Social background still decides success

Every fourth child in Germany was affected by at least one social risk factor in 2024, according to the report. Among children with an immigrant background, the share was 54 percent, compared with 14 percent among children without such a background. The report finds that in Germany the acquisition of competencies is more strongly tied to social origin than in many other countries. Despite 347 measures by the federal states and 13 by the federal government between 2024 and 2026, the authors call for coordinated, systemic approaches.

Training and university pathways under strain

The vocational training system is shrinking: 476,000 new apprenticeship contracts were signed in 2025, 13,000 fewer than in 2023, and only 18.7 percent of companies still train. With rising demand, only 95 training places were available for every 100 applicants. At universities, bachelor students need an average of 8.4 semesters (up from 7.2 in 2014), and less than 30 percent finish within the standard period.

The education system faces diverse challenges that overlap and reinforce each other.

Minister calls for early intervention

Federal Education Minister Karin Prien (CDU) described the findings as a societal task and argued that the education gap opens from birth. She urged mandatory language tests and early language support already in daycare, and said that all actors from families to youth services must work together strategically. Berlin’s education senator Katharina Günther-Wünsch emphasised the goal of bringing all children into early childhood education as soon as possible.

The education gap closes when a child is born, then opens until school entry and after that is barely narrowed.