A halfway check on the 2022 deal

Nearly 200 parties will meet in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, until 30 October to take stock of the Kunming-Montreal framework they adopted in 2022. The framework set 23 targets for 2030, the most prominent of which is protecting at least 30 percent of the world's land and sea areas. The opening ceremony was scheduled for Sunday, 18 October, and formal negotiations run from 19 to 30 October, with up to 15,000 participants expected according to RTS. The meeting marks the midpoint of the deal, and the UN is compiling a global review of its progress for the first time.

The findings are weak. A UN interim report released in July found that 22 of the 23 targets were not on track, while SRF's reading of the same stocktake gives only one target a good path, namely reducing the effects of climate change on biodiversity. More than 90 percent of parties have set national targets, and 142 countries plus the EU submitted interim reports, yet actual implementation lags well behind the paperwork.

Why progress is stalling

Several obstacles appear across the coverage. Many measures are not being implemented at all, and many countries lack the know-how or money to carry them out. Subsidies for transport and agriculture that split up habitats or encourage intensive farming work against the goals, and the parties want to cut them sharply by 2030, but little has happened so far. Classic conservation goals such as creating protected areas are moving faster than targets on sustainable consumption, sustainable production and the circular economy.

Jelle Behagel, an associate professor at Wageningen University, said he had expected this result.

“I expected this. I think we can no longer reach the 2030 targets.”

Behagel still considers the 30 percent protected area goal possibly achievable, especially on land, and says the Netherlands and the EU are close to it. Wildlife trade, species extinction and pollution are harder to tackle because they are tied to economic activity. He also hopes that recognition of indigenous and local communities, women and young people will hold in Yerevan, since protecting those groups was a gain at the previous summit.

Money and the finance gap

Financing is the sticking point. The parties pledged to mobilise 200 billion dollars a year for biodiversity by 2030, and that goal is not on schedule. At COP16 in Cali in 2024 they agreed on a roadmap for mobilising resources running up to COP18, and VRT NWS notes that the question of where more money will come from is still unresolved. A UNEP report cited by VRT NWS says 30 dollars are spent on destroying nature for every dollar invested in protecting it, and that investment should be 2.5 times higher. An expert quoted by the same outlet says subsidies for activities that destroy biodiversity, including fossil fuels, have grown sharply.

Who is at the table

UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke before the conference of a "gap between ambitions and action" and said the war on nature is not over. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian acknowledged that collectively the world is not yet on the right track and urged states to turn their commitments into concrete action. Germany's delegation is led by Environment Minister Carsten Schneider, who travels to Yerevan in the second week and describes a mixed picture with some progress.

“But we are nowhere near where we need to be.”

Switzerland sends an eight-member delegation led by Gabriela Blatter from the Federal Office for the Environment, alongside a representative of the chemical-pharmaceutical industry, a scientist and an environmental organisation representative. RTS reports that the Swiss environmental NGOs rank Switzerland among the weaker performers in Europe, and that the country's intensive agriculture is a particular problem for biodiversity.

What comes next

Astrid Schomaker, executive secretary of the biodiversity convention, called the meeting very important and asked whether the world is able to accelerate. Schomaker also pointed to the high level of engagement, with 142 countries and the EU submitting interim reports. Negotiations close on 30 October, and the key question for the coming period is how to find more money before COP18.