Guterres tells COP31 fossil fuels must go as Macron, Merz and Meloni skip Antalya

Fossil fuels at the centre of the talks

The UN climate summit in Antalya, a Mediterranean resort city in Turkey, opened on Monday, 9 November and runs for two weeks. It follows a year of heatwaves in Europe, deadly floods in Nepal and major wildfires in Indonesia. On Wednesday, 11 November, Guterres told the assembled heads of state that fossil fuels must go, accusing their lobby of distorting science and delaying decisions and accountability. Brazil, which hosted COP30 last year, presented a roadmap on Tuesday in Antalya, a toolkit for countries that want to move away from fossil fuels. Nearly 200 countries committed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 to start such a transition, but the topic has stalled because producer countries oppose any explicit mention of oil, coal or gas, and COP30 closed with a deal that does not name them.

“An accelerated transition away from fossil fuels is essential to limit overshooting the 1.5°C threshold of global warming.”

Fossil fuel combustion is the main driver of human-caused warming. A Global Carbon Budget study published on Tuesday expects emissions from burning them to fall 0.4% this year, a dip linked partly to the effect of the conflict in Iran that scientists say is insufficient to meet global climate goals. On Monday, Turkey's president, who is also the host, announced the discovery of two oil fields, while the phase-out debate continued.

Timeline of the first days

The milestones reported so far are plotted below. According to AFP journalists on site, access to the conference centre has been difficult since talks began on Monday, and moving around the venue has been hard. A UN preparatory document published at the end of October lists 77 heads of state and government, or their representatives, to speak in turn over the two days of the high-level segment.

Leaders who stayed away

Lula, Erdoğan and Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian are among the leaders scheduled to speak, and Lula was recently elected for a new term in Brazil. Burnham is the only G7 leader on the speaking list, while EU chief Ursula von der Leyen is attending. The French government said Macron is absent because 11 November marks the World War I Armistice commemorations and he will attend a summit in Dublin on 12 November. According to El Periódico, Merz and Meloni are also skipping the event to prioritise European meetings in Dublin. Donald Trump is staying away for a second consecutive year, citing his rejection of international climate debates, while Mark Carney and Sanae Takaichi are missing from the most recent list. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez is skipping the summit to relaunch his electoral campaign, and Sara Aagesen, the third deputy prime minister and ecological transition minister, will also miss it because of a Congress appearance on energy planning, though she is expected to travel to Turkey in the week of 16 November. Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto is also absent, and his brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo, the presidential special envoy for climate and energy, is representing the country alongside environment minister Jumhur Hidayat.

Cosima Cassel, a climate diplomacy expert at the think-tank E3G, told AFP that it was a shame some of the bigger European leaders were not attending. Chiara Martinelli, director of Climate Action Network Europe, voiced a similar worry about the EU's standing.

“I am afraid that Ursula von der Leyen will be lonely on the stage while the leaders of the biggest EU economies are a no-show.”

Iran, the war and low expectations

Pezeshkian plans to raise the environmental damage Tehran links to the war that Washington and Israel launched against Iran at the end of February. Iranian state television reported his remarks before he left for Turkey.

“At this conference, we will speak about the actions of the United States and Israel in destroying the environment.”

Wopke Hoekstra, the EU's top climate official, said the absences were not completely unusual because leaders may have practical reasons to skip the event, but he added that expectations were not necessarily high. He told reporters in Brussels that the EU wants COP31 to focus on implementation and on electrification, and that the bloc does not intend to put new funding on the table. Hoekstra, who said the EU remains by far the largest contributor to climate finance, plans to travel to Antalya on Monday, 16 November, when the conference is due to close on 20 November.