Spanish airlines schedule 5.5% more winter seats but warn of a tougher summer 2027

Winter seats rise unevenly across Spain

The Asociación de Líneas Aéreas (ALA), which represents airlines covering 85% of Spanish air traffic, presented its winter forecast on Monday, 26 October 2026. Airlines have scheduled 145.6 million seats for a season running to March 2027, up 5.5% on the same period a year earlier. The association did not rule out later schedule adjustments because of geopolitical uncertainty and higher fuel costs. Growth varies sharply by airport: Madrid-Barajas adds 9.7% to reach 37 million seats, while Barcelona-El Prat rises 1.9% to 26 million. The Balearic Islands total 10.37 million seats, up 4.4%, with Palma growing 6% to 7.98 million and Menorca 1.2% to 700,392. Canarias is flat, and Andalusia grows by more than 4%.

Madrid-Barajas9.7%

Palma6%

Barcelona-El Prat1.9%

Menorca1.2%

Madrid-Barajas

9.7 %

Palma

6 %

Barcelona-El Prat

1.9 %

Menorca

1.2 %

Data from the article text

Summer traffic slows as fuel costs bite

Between April and September 2026 there were about 1.35 million commercial flights, 4.7% more than the previous summer. Passengers rose 4.4% to roughly 191 to 192 million, so flight growth outpaced passenger growth for the first time this summer. ALA attributes the gap to load factors, which are being hit by jet fuel prices.

“Load factors are beginning to suffer from the impact of kerosene prices.”

Jet fuel has at times neared 1,600 dollars per tonne, more than double its level before the Iran war, and fuel makes up around 30% of airline costs. Most carriers hedged 60% to 80% of their consumption at prices close to pre-war levels, leaving the rest exposed to the market.

Summer flights4.7%

Summer passengers4.4%

Winter seats5.5%

Summer flights

4.7 %

Summer passengers

4.4 %

Winter seats

5.5 %

Data from the article text

Hedging cover shrinks for next summer

Gándara's warning centres on next summer, which he described in these words:

“Next summer is the most uncertain since the Covid-19 times.”

Current cover for this winter is put at 60% to 80% of kerosene exposure. For next year the association expects far less, with cover between 15% and 40% in the estimates reported, and some carriers near 15%. Gándara said that if fuel prices stay at current levels, airlines may pass the higher costs on to passengers or absorb them through lower margins.

“Costs could rise significantly next year if fuel does not get cheaper, and each company will decide whether to pass them on to fares or margins.”

Fares, emissions rules and airport capacity

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary has predicted fare increases of up to 20%, a figure Gándara declined to assess. ALA asks the European Union to revise the Emissions Trading System so it accounts for the extra cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which costs three to eight times conventional kerosene. The association considers the 110 million allowances reserved for SAF insufficient and wants 500 million to offset the costs created by the RefuelEU rules. WizzAir, the Hungarian low-cost carrier, has announced a base in Madrid, where it will expand connections with Airbus A321 aircraft. ALA does not give causes for the gap between Madrid and Barcelona and takes no position on airport co-management.

What comes next

Passenger traffic reached 257 million through September, up 4.1%, and the association expects a new full-year passenger record. ALA acknowledges that the winter figures could change, since some airlines could announce cuts to their final schedules or passengers could travel less because of lower disposable income. Gándara said the outlook for next summer depends on the Middle East, and that if the situation there does not improve, the coming summer will become very difficult.