Aena lifts 2026 passenger forecast to 3% as Middle East conflict diverts traffic to Spain

First-half earnings cross the billion-euro mark

Aena posted a net profit of 1,002 million euros for the first six months of 2026, a 12.1% increase on the 893.8 million euros recorded a year earlier. Total consolidated revenue climbed 10.1% to 3,299.6 million euros, with aeronautical income contributing 1,702.1 million euros and commercial revenue 991 million euros. EBITDA reached 1,798.9 million euros, up 6.3% year-on-year, yielding an EBITDA margin of 54.5%. Net cash from operating activities rose 8% to 1,598.5 million euros. The result fell just short of the Bloomberg analyst consensus, which had forecast net profit of 1,019.8 million euros and EBITDA of 1,825.5 million euros, though revenue exceeded the expected 3,314.6 million euros.

Traffic boosted by geopolitics and rail disruption

Before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, passenger growth was tracking below 3%, in line with Aena’s earlier projections. The company told the CNMV that the Middle East conflict triggered a temporary diversion of traffic toward Spain, which is perceived as a safe tourist destination. At the same time, restrictions on high-speed rail corridors (including the Barcelona–Madrid line and disruption following the Adamuz accident) shifted some travellers onto planes. Across its Spanish network, Aena handled 156.2 million passengers in the first half, a 3.7% increase. Group-wide traffic, which includes London-Luton, the Brazilian airports of ANB and BOAB, and Leeds Bradford, grew 3.9% to 190 million passengers.

Full-year forecast raised, but second-half caution remains

Aena revised its 2026 passenger growth estimate to around 3%, up from the 1.3% it had projected earlier. The company stressed that the uplift is circumstantial and noted that the growth rate is still below the 4.5% recorded in the first half of 2025. It flagged a “lack of visibility” for the remainder of the year, pointing to the expiry of fuel hedges at several airlines and high uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. Aena also reported that load factors are weakening: actual passenger numbers are growing more slowly than the seats being offered, a trend that could eventually constrain the capacity airlines schedule.

Investment push and regulatory milestone ahead

Capital expenditure reached 916.3 million euros in the half-year period. The figure includes 340 million euros for the acquisition of a 51% stake in the holding company Augusta, owner of Leeds Bradford and Newcastle airports. Aena also secured the concession for Rio de Janeiro’s main airport (Rio-Galeão) for 2.9 billion reais, roughly 490 million euros. The results arrive ahead of the September approval of the DORA airport regulation document for 2027–2031, which sets out nearly 10 billion euros in investments across the Spanish network, with 1,765.2 million euros earmarked for Barcelona-El Prat and 4,477.4 million euros for Madrid-Barajas.

In this scenario, Aena estimates that traffic growth in 2026 could be around 3% compared to 2025.

What the numbers show

The company, chaired by Maurici Lucena, is 51% state-owned. Its first-half performance was driven by the safe-haven inflow and rail-to-air modal shift, but the outlook is tempered by the same geopolitical forces that provided the short-term boost.