About 650 prisoners freed on Tuesday in England and Wales' second early release wave

Second wave under way

About 650 offenders are leaving prisons in England and Wales on Tuesday, 13 October, in the second phase of the early release scheme. Under the new rules, prisoners leave after serving a third of their sentence rather than half, and some have served up to two and a half years. The Guardian reports that about 2,000 criminals, including domestic abusers and violent offenders, are being freed this month, with another 3,000 to follow in stages over the next year, and that the total was reduced from 6,000 after an intervention by Andy Burnham. Prisoners convicted of manslaughter are excluded, which rules out the killers of PC Andrew Harper. Dozens of inmates released earlier this month have already been recalled to jail, according to the Telegraph.

Tagging and monitoring strain

Sir Mark Rowley, the Met's commissioner, told LBC that he was 'worried' about the number of offenders released into communities, and that the Met is arresting two to three early-release offenders a week since the start of August. The Met is also dealing with over 100 electronic tag breaches a day in London. A report by His Majesty's Inspectorate of Probation found that almost half of tags used to track offenders' movements in England and Wales are not fitted on time, which it believes puts victims at risk of harm. Rowley described the policy gap in these terms:

I think there's a challenge that the government is wrestling with. This is a very poor approach to long-term policy, where the national approach to sentencing offenders and the national approach to building prisons have been completely different.

Rowley said that tagging could work if offenders know their behaviour is being monitored, but that there needs to be 'jeopardy'. Victims' commissioner Claire Waxman said the government's confidence in the plan 'is not yet matched by the reality on the ground'.

Probation union dispute

Napo held a pre-ballot meeting as the second wave began, and its members will be asked to vote on industrial action over pay and a question on workloads. Pay talks ended with a conditional 'best and final' offer worth 5%, which the union's negotiating committee rejected. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) says the offer is fair, has been accepted by two other unions, and is linked to £700m of investment in probation to recruit 1,300 extra officers and roll out AI tools to cut monitoring workloads. Napo says the releases have put enormous strain on members who monitor offenders in the community.

Supervision rules and prison numbers

The MoJ said released offenders would be monitored under the 'toughest supervision in British history', with restriction zones confining the highest-risk sexual and violent offenders to areas a few miles wide. It also announced a new presumption that offenders will be electronically tagged when they leave prison. The prison population in England and Wales stood at 87,499 on Monday, 12 October, according to MoJ data, up from 85,761 on 29 June, a rise of 2%.

What comes next

The next stage is set for June 2027, when those serving more than 12 years could walk free. The government's plan to overhaul criminal courts has returned to Parliament alongside the release wave. Napo's formal ballot on industrial action launches on 19 October.