RKI estimates 12,500 heat-related deaths in Germany through August 2, surpassing any full previous year

Record heat mortality

The Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) estimates that approximately 12,500 people in Germany died due to heat between April 6 and August 2, 2026, according to its weekly report published on Thursday. The figure surpasses any single previous year on record. The prior estimate, covering the period to July 26, stood at 11,900, meaning 2,700 additional deaths were recorded since mid-July. The RKI described the current figure as a conservative estimate that could still be revised upward.

The previous highest annual totals were 9,400 deaths in 2018 and 7,700 in 2019, according to the latest RKI recalculations. Earlier RKI figures for those years had been lower, and an RKI spokesperson explained that estimates are recalculated monthly as the statistical model is refined.

The June heatwave

Roughly 9,600 of the 12,500 deaths occurred in a single week, from June 22 to 28, when temperatures in many parts of Germany exceeded 40°C. According to EU climate service Copernicus, June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe. The RKI quantified general excess mortality for the peak week and the two following weeks at 14,500 cases. A clear excess mortality was also recorded in the first two weeks of July.

Age and regional patterns

Heat disproportionately killed older people. About 6,300 of the dead were aged 85 or older, more than 3,100 were between 75 and 84, nearly 1,900 between 65 and 74, and about 1,200 were under 65. Nearly 9,400 of the total deaths fell in the 75-and-older group. More women than men appeared in the overall statistics, which the RKI attributed to women's higher share in the oldest age groups; among those under 75, more men died.

85+6,300

75-843,100

65-741,900

Under 651,200

85+

6300 deaths

75-84

3100 deaths

65-74

1900 deaths

Under 65

1200 deaths

Data from the article text

Regional differences were pronounced. Per 100,000 inhabitants, Saarland recorded 43.4 heat deaths and Rheinland-Pfalz 38.7, compared with a national average of 15. Hessen (27.2) and Baden-Württemberg (23.9) were also above average.

Saarland43.4

Rheinland-Pfalz38.7

Hessen27.2

Baden-Württemberg23.9

Germany (avg)15

Saarland

43.4 per 100,000

Rheinland-Pfalz

38.7 per 100,000

Hessen

27.2 per 100,000

Baden-Württemberg

23.9 per 100,000

Germany (avg)

15 per 100,000

Data from the article text

How the numbers are calculated

Because doctors rarely list heat as a cause of death on certificates, the RKI computes its figures through statistical models comparing mortality in hot and non-hot summer weeks, drawing on death data from the Statistisches Bundesamt and weather data from 52 stations operated by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Heat-related mortality typically becomes visible when the weekly average temperature exceeds 20°C. In the week from July 27 to August 2, the national weekly average stood at 21.6°C, with 13 of Germany's 16 federal states above the 20°C threshold.

Political response

Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) renewed his call for a constitutional amendment to give the federal government more authority over heat protection. He told ARD-Morgenmagazin that while he can help municipalities in individual cases, such as funding climate adaptation managers, measures like creating shaded areas or unsealing urban surfaces are currently barred by the constitution. Schneider proposed a joint task (Gemeinschaftsaufgabe) between federal and state governments, requiring a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag. The coalition agreement between CDU, CSU and SPD already provides for examining such a measure, but Schneider's proposal has met skepticism within the Union. He plans to present a formal proposal in the second half of the year.

Nicola Buhlinger-Göpfarth, chair of the Hausärztinnen- und Hausärzteverband, criticized government inaction in the Rheinische Post:

“Almost 10,000 heat deaths following a single week in June are no longer a warning shot. The emergency has already arrived.”

She said the topic regularly disappears from the political agenda once temperatures drop in autumn, calling the high death toll "shocking, but unfortunately not really surprising."