World·since 26 May·1,167 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week31 entries
State of playtoday 16:47
Ukraine and Russia
Putin told envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that Moscow agrees in principle to resume technical-level talks with Kyiv and Washington after 10 November, while ruling out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land. The White House says a localized halt in Oleshky starts 29 October.
The Economist reports a US draft plan with a demilitarized zone in Donbas, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and sanctions relief for Russia.
Sanctions and Allies
Trump waived most Russia sanctions and eased Russian diesel imports until April 2027, while pressing European allies to release emergency diesel stocks. Von der Leyen says EU energy sanctions stay. Trump also suggested NATO consider removing Spain over missing the 5% of GDP spending target.
Trade and Hemisphere
Exemptions from the 50% Canada tariffs take effect 30 October. Politico reports Washington ties EU steel relief to softer Digital Markets Act enforcement. In Brazil, Lula won the runoff with 51.78%, Flávio Bolsonaro says he will seek annulment, and the Bovespa fell about 10% at the open before a trading halt.
The test is whether Republican critics of the Russia waivers move Congress before the 3 November midterms.
What comes next
- tomorrowIsrael holds election; Trump has endorsed Netanyahu
- in 3 daysOleshky pause between Russia and Ukraine due to start (White House date)
- in 4 daysTariff exemptions on some Canadian imports take effect
- in 8 daysUS midterm elections for House and Senate
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Washington actually suspend NATO's PURL programme or intelligence sharing to press Kyiv over refinery strikes?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Says a Canada tariff deal will come quickly, eases Russia fuel and sanctions measures, presses Europe on diesel stocks and Spain's NATO spending, and called Libya "terror-infested", days before the midterms.
26 Oct
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Backs a ceasefire and trilateral talks, and gains access to NATO's NSPA procurement agency as Kyiv-Washington ties cool.
26 Oct
US special envoys US negotiators on Russia and Ukraine
Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October and heard Russia agree in principle to resume technical talks after 10 November.
26 Oct
EU leaders European Council members
Rejected the US asset proposal and any lifting of sanctions while the war continues, and are discussing a €90 billion loan for Kyiv.
18 Oct
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Says the Russia sanctions decision could take up to 60 days, and that SpaceX decides Starlink availability in Ukraine with no US curbs ordered.
21 Oct
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Ready to resume talks toward a final peace deal but rules out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land; reportedly a possible joint backer of Orban for UN chief.
26 Oct
Ursula von der Leyen European Commission President
Said on 21 October that EU sanctions on Russian energy will not be lifted despite the US diesel arrangement.
21 Oct
Viktor Orbán Hungarian leader
Reportedly backed by the Trump administration as a joint US, Russian and Chinese candidate for UN secretary-general; WSJ says no final decision yet.
26 Oct
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises8
Donald Trumpopen
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
White Houseopen
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Vladimir Putinopen
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,167 entries since 26 May
26 October – 1 November2 entries
Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.78% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, who has not conceded. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell nearly 20% overnight. The result follows Reuters reporting on State Department efforts to help the Bolsonaro family.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration backs Hungarian leader Viktor Orban for UN secretary-general. The plan would make him a joint candidate of the United States, Russia and China; the final decision is still pending.
19–25 October30 entries
Fox News reported on 25 October that the Pentagon's FORTRESS plan would have large US bases operate for 90 days without outside support, using stockpiles, backup power and civilian factories.
Libya's foreign ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires on 25 October after Trump described the country as "terror-infested". The ministry said the remarks damaged the dignity and standing of the Libyan people.
Reuters reported on 24 October that two State Department officials led efforts to help the Bolsonaro family regain power, using sanctions on a Supreme Court justice, visa restrictions and 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. Brazilian analysts said several measures backfired and strengthened President Lula.
The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on 23 October that the administration had not met the statutory conditions to take control of California's National Guard during last year's immigration protests, finding the deployment exceeded presidential authority and encroached on Congress's powers.
Senator Susan Collins announced on 23 October that nine categories of Canadian goods, including blueberries, potatoes and apples, will be removed from the 50% US tariffs. A White House official said preliminary reports are not final policy, and talks with Ottawa have been stalled since August.
A US draft plan for Ukraine would create a demilitarized zone in Donbas, bar Ukraine from NATO and reopen a route for Russian gas to Europe, the Economist reported. It would also give Russia sanctions relief, while a Russian diesel tanker heads for New York.
The White House said Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt military action in Oleshky, a Dnipro river city, from 29 October, brokered by Melania Trump. The pause is meant to let aid in and allow civilian evacuation through set passages.
The Trump administration urged European allies to release emergency diesel reserves and threatened to restrict US diesel exports if they refuse, Reuters reported on 23 October. The push aims to lower domestic fuel prices before the midterms and runs alongside eased measures on Russian fuel.
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the Financial Times, in an interview published 23 October, that Washington is prepared for a prolonged standoff with Iran and would not rule out the conflict lasting another year, with preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon the stated aim.
Politico Europe reported on 22 October that Washington warned it would not reduce tariffs on European steel and other goods unless Brussels eased implementation of the Digital Markets Act, which governs large technology companies.
Putin said on 22 October that Russia is ready to resume talks toward a final peace deal but rejected any handover of occupied Ukrainian land. The same day Trump claimed Musk had restored Starlink access in Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials dispute.
Trump spoke with Elon Musk and asked him to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Starlink, the Wall Street Journal reported on 22 October, as cited by Reuters. The report did not say whether Musk agreed or whether access was restored.
US District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín in California ordered the administration on 22 October to suspend its investigations into alleged noncitizen voter registrations in nine states until polls close on 3 November, citing data errors and intimidation of groups assisting voters. The administration may appeal.
The European Parliament gave its Sakharov Prize to the ICC on 22 October, days after the Trump administration imposed sanctions meant to isolate the court over investigations involving the US and its allies, with a six-month wind-down for affected businesses.
Downing Street said it does not recognise the description of Vladimir Putin as a humanitarian, after Steve Witkoff used the term in St Petersburg on 21 October, the day Russia freed a US citizen. London thus publicly distanced itself from the US envoy.
The Pentagon is reportedly planning undercover agents posing as businesspeople to gather economic intelligence on China, and a sabotage unit was set up in April 2026. The Pentagon denies both initiatives.
NATO is giving Ukraine access to its procurement agency NSPA in Luxembourg, letting Kyiv buy weapons, ammunition and military equipment. The arrangement follows cooler Kyiv-Washington ties and a reduced US role in direct supply.
Steve Witkoff thanked Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg on 21 October for freeing an American, prompting rebukes from Republican senators while talks on Ukraine stall. The remarks put Trump's envoy at odds with senators of his own party over Russia policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on 21 October that comments tying riots in France to Muslim immigrants were "unacceptable and stupid", adding there was no evidence immigration caused the unrest. Trump had promoted those claims in his US political messaging.
Democratic groups and party leaders asked a federal court in Washington to halt federal moves against state voter rolls and to bar threats against election officials, less than two weeks before the 3 November midterms.
Russia released US citizen Stephen Hubbard, held since 2022, while Witkoff was in St Petersburg; Trump announced the release on 21 October, a day after saying he had asked Putin to free him.
Putin told Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that Russia is ready in principle to restart technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US, per Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. They would address post-war security arrangements, possibly in Abu Dhabi. No breakthrough was reported.
Ursula von der Leyen said on 21 October that EU sanctions on Russian energy will not be lifted, after the Trump administration reportedly agreed with Moscow to ease restrictions on diesel imports until April 2027, setting Washington and Brussels on different sanctions paths.
Steve Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on the morning of 21 October, a day after talks with Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo, and is due to present revised peace proposals to Vladimir Putin.
The US Court of International Trade ruled the new 10% global tariffs unlawful but left them in force for most importers while an appeal proceeds.
At a 20 October rally Trump said the United States could leave Europe if it does not find the right way quickly, faulting European countries for not helping in the Iran war and urging them to close borders. No formal withdrawal was announced.
Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey food importer, filed suit on 20 October arguing Trump exceeded his authority by invoking Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act on about $20 billion of Canadian imports. The case follows the Supreme Court's February ruling against most earlier tariffs.
Trump said on 20 October he had asked Vladimir Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher held in Russia since 2022. Envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October.
The Department of Homeland Security ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and services built on the model and barred new acquisitions. China's commerce ministry said the measure harms Chinese firms, and Beijing said it violated understandings between Xi Jinping and Trump.
The Department of Homeland Security said on 19 October that immigrants from Ukraine and Sudan can keep Temporary Protected Status for now, despite the scheduled expiry that day. Further announcements are to follow. Trump said he would consider letting Ukrainians stay until the war ends.
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