World·since 26 May·1,266 entries
The war in Ukraine and its limits
Ukraine and Russia keep striking each other's energy sites while Trump's announced energy ceasefire has no agreed terms. Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have produced no breakthrough and Europe sits outside the main format, while EU capitals split over funding Ukraine's 2027 gap.
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This week17 entries
State of playtoday 11:27
Energy Truce Unimplemented
Trump announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October with no published scope, monitoring or start date. A Russian attack on 11 November hit energy sites in eight Ukrainian regions and caused power cuts in six.
Ukrainian strikes have disrupted nine of Russia's 35 major refineries since late October, about 2.2 million barrels per day of nominal capacity, or roughly 30% of refining, per Reuters-based reporting. A drone attack set fire at Ust-Luga port.
Talks and Europe's Seat
The Abu Dhabi talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine entered a second day on 11 November. Discussions covered security guarantees, prisoner exchanges, territory and humanitarian issues, with energy and Black Sea ceasefires also raised. Le Monde reports the Russian delegation did not endorse Kyiv's ceasefire demand.
European officials hold separate contacts with Kyiv, while Moscow insists the format stays Russia, Ukraine and the US. Washington says Britain and European countries should be involved.
Funding the 2027 Gap
Merz wants the EU to cover about €45 billion of a projected €70 billion 2027 gap and to link the budget to the Ukraine loan. Visegrad countries resist, and Costa says both will be discussed at the 26–27 November summit.
The test is whether the delegations leave Abu Dhabi with written energy terms despite Lavrov's demand to discuss European security architecture first.
What comes next
- todaySecond day of US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi
- in 9 daysUK-EU summit in Brussels
- in 15 daysEuropean Council summit (26-27 November) to discuss Ukraine funding and the budget
- in 33 daysG20 summit in Miami begins (14-15 December), Putin invited
Open questions
- Will Russia and Ukraine agree real terms to halt attacks on energy facilities after the collapse of the announced truce?
- How will Ukraine's 2027 funding gap, projected at about €70 billion, be covered beyond the €90 billion loan?
Who is who8
Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine
Called the first Abu Dhabi day constructive, warns Moscow is preparing strikes on energy sites and bridges, and cites an interceptor shortage.
11 Nov
Donald Trump US President
Announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October that still has no agreed terms, and touts a big deal with Russia ahead of Abu Dhabi.
7 Nov
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Russia, which Putin leads, has resumed trilateral talks but says no European officials will take part in Abu Dhabi.
10 Nov
Vladimir Medinsky Kremlin aide and head of Russia's delegation
Leads Russia's team at the Abu Dhabi talks on 10-11 November, alongside military-intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov.
10 Nov
European Commission EU executive
Paid Ukraine €4.36 billion on 5 November under the €90 billion loan, and the EU agreed to activate a grid repair financing mechanism, with no value or timetable given.
10 Nov
United Kingdom and France Leads of Multinational Force Ukraine planning
Lead Exercise Koalicja on 9-22 November in Poland; France said a French delegation would attend Abu Dhabi, which Moscow denies.
11 Nov
Friedrich Merz German Chancellor
Wants the EU to provide about €45 billion of Ukraine's projected €70 billion 2027 gap, with all member states contributing.
10 Nov
Robert Fico Slovak Prime Minister
Calls the German position on funding Ukraine blackmail and opposes linking the EU budget to the Ukraine loan.
10 Nov
Promises11
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will observe a local ceasefire in occupied Oleshky for aid and a civilian evacuation corridor.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · reuters.com
Vladimir Putinkept
Putin will resume trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States.
21 Oct · due 10 Nov · apnews.com
Volodymyr Zelenskyyunclear
Zelenskyy will organise elections during a 60-day ceasefire.
11 Oct · rferl.org
Volodymyr Zelenskyybroken
Ukraine will stop strikes on Russian refineries if Moscow ends attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with real guarantees.
11 Oct · rferl.org
Marcin Józefaciukopen
Józefaciuk will ask President Nawrocki to veto the national sanctions bill passed by the Sejm.
6 Nov · pollar.news
Lithuaniaopen
Lithuania will introduce general conscription for men from 2032, subject to parliament's approval.
29 Oct · from 2032 · pollar.news
Eleven EU countriesopen
Eleven EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of strategic oil stocks, 20.5 million of them diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
Volodymyr Zelenskyyopen
Ukraine would consider a 30-day halt to refinery strikes if Washington supplies Patriot interceptors.
20 Oct · afp.com
European Councilopen
The Commission will present concrete proposals on Ukraine's additional 2027 financing needs.
16 Oct · report.az
Germanyopen
Germany will continue pursuing sanctions against Russia despite the US temporary suspension of restrictions on Russian diesel.
10 Oct · dw.com
Brian Fitzpatrickopen
Fitzpatrick will introduce a House bill blocking Russian oil purchases.
10 Oct · rferl.org
Chronicle1,266 entries since 26 May
9–15 November8 entries
Russia's FSB announced on 11 November that it detained two people accused of gathering information on military facilities for Polish intelligence. Interfax reported that seven Polish citizens and three Russian citizens were also officially warned.
A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at the Ust-Luga port and cut power to a station, Leningrad governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said on 11 November. Russian authorities reported 146 drones shot down over the region, which hosts major oil-export terminals.
Drones entering from Belarus triggered yellow, then red, alerts across much of central and northern Lithuania late on 10 November. Authorities said none were shot down, and Polish forces had not confirmed that an object entered Polish territory. NATO jets were scrambled.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote on 10 November that the EU should provide about €45 billion toward a projected €70 billion Ukrainian financing gap for 2027. Hungary and Slovakia oppose linking the EU budget to the Ukraine loan, and Fico called the German position blackmail.
Poland's Internal Security Agency detained two Ukrainian men in Minsk Mazowiecki on 3 November, and prosecutors charged them with espionage and sabotage on 4 November. A court ordered three months of pretrial detention. The arrests were made public on 10 November.
Moscow said no European officials will take part in the Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, contradicting France's foreign minister, who had said a French delegation would attend. Reuters and Politico report European officials are travelling regardless.
Zelensky said on 9 November that the EU agreed to activate a special mechanism to speed financing of repairs to Ukraine's power grid after fresh Russian strikes on substations. The reports gave no financial value or implementation timetable.
Fires and explosions were reported at the KINEF refinery in Kirishi after an overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Leningrad Oblast governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said 113 drones were shot down over the region, as Abu Dhabi talks were due to open.
2–8 November22 entries
Russian attacks on energy infrastructure on 8 November cut power to more than 600,000 people in Dnipropetrovsk region and nearly 250,000 customers in Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities and DTEK said, two days before the Abu Dhabi talks.
The US State Department approved the sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine for an estimated $2.1 billion, according to a Reuters-based report. No delivery date is stated. Zelensky had just described a significant interceptor shortage after intercepting four of 36 ballistic missiles.
Russia launched a missile attack on Kyiv on 7 November, with debris damaging a residential building, Reuters reported. Zelensky said Moscow was preparing strikes on energy sites, bridges and other infrastructure, three days before the Abu Dhabi talks.
The Sejm approved the government's national sanctions bill on 6 November by 240 votes to 202. Independent MP Marcin Józefaciuk says he voted for it by mistake and will ask President Karol Nawrocki to veto it.
Germany, Ukraine and the Kremlin each said Europe should take part in the US-Ukraine-Russia round in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November, but no European delegation has a seat so far, while Trump touts a big deal with Russia.
Russian attacks on energy infrastructure caused fresh outages on 6 November in Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, Ukraine's deputy energy minister said, with restrictions kept in place while repairs proceed.
The European Commission transferred €4.36 billion to Ukraine on 5 November: €3.7 billion in budget support and €658 million for defence procurement. It said €25.2 billion in EU financial support remains available for the rest of 2026.
More than 200 Ukrainian drones caused fires and power cuts in Ryazan overnight into 5 November, governor Pavel Malkov said. Footage points to a fire at the Rosneft refinery, which officials have not confirmed.
Poland's Internal Security Agency detained six people, five Poles and a 37-year-old Russian woman, over alleged supplies of military materials to Russia. Four were placed in temporary custody on espionage charges.
Zelensky held a roughly 90-minute call with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on 4 November, presenting Ukraine's proposals for Abu Dhabi and naming air defence, including more Patriot interceptors, as a priority. Washington called his engagement constructive.
Brussels opposed a proposal attributed to American negotiators to restart European imports of Russian gas through a pipeline via Ukraine, Politico reported on 4 November. The idea has added to European frustration with the US-led diplomatic approach ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks.
Drones struck an Ozon logistics centre in Adygeysk overnight into 4 November, setting a warehouse on fire. The company said all employees were evacuated and nobody was hurt.
A Russian drone attack hit a substation important to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant, about 190 km from the Polish border, Ukraine's energy minister said. Kyiv halted tram and trolleybus services on the evening of 3 November after the overnight strike on the energy system.
Ukraine's central bank cut its 2026 forecast from 1.8% growth to a 0.4% contraction, citing Russian attacks on energy, rail and export routes and higher global energy prices, AP reported on 3 November. Steel output has stopped in places and grain shipments are disrupted.
Ukrainian drones targeted the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl overnight into 3 November, with governor Mikhail Yevrayev reporting 124 drones and fires at the plant. At least four large Russian refineries have been struck since 30 October.
The European Commission will host Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, NATO and the World Bank on 4 November to discuss postwar reconstruction. US attendance is unconfirmed. The meeting precedes the Abu Dhabi talks on 10-11 November.
Russian ballistic missiles and guided bombs hit a hospital in Kharkiv's Nemyshlianskyi district, wounding 73, while Russia's Defence Ministry claimed a massive strike on Ukrainian energy and Odesa port sites.
The Kremlin confirmed on 3 November that presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky will head Russia's delegation to US-mediated talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November. Witkoff said the agenda covers security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian issues.
Exercise Koalicja will run from 9 to 22 November near Nowa Dęba in southeastern Poland, with about 3,000 personnel from 12 countries rehearsing how a Multinational Force Ukraine would move and be supplied after a ceasefire. The force would have no offensive role.
Ukrainian officials said repeated Russian strikes on a school serving as a humanitarian aid centre in Zaporizhzhia killed 26 people on 2 November, hours after the Oleshky truce expired. Earlier tallies cited 24 dead. Russia has not confirmed the account.
The UK Ministry of Defence said the Russian intelligence ship Viktor Leonov monitored NATO warships during the Strike Warrior exercise off Scotland. Royal Navy Merlin helicopters were sent to follow the vessel.
Reuters, citing the Wall Street Journal and US, European and Ukrainian officials, reported on 2 November that Washington supports a rapid resumption of Russian pipeline-gas sales to Europe through Ukraine as part of winter energy ceasefire discussions. No agreement has been announced.
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