Energy Truce Collapsed
Trump announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October with no published scope or monitoring mechanism. On 21 October Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin is not considering an energy truce and that Russia wants a broader peace. Ukraine ended its pause on 15 October and struck St Petersburg oil facilities on 18 October.
Russian missiles and drones hit energy sites in Kyiv, Volyn, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions overnight on 21 October. Reuters counts four dead and AP five, with 25 injured; two more died near Kharkiv.
Patriot Shortage
Zelenskyy says Ukraine is close to exhausting its Patriot missiles and links a pause in refinery strikes to new interceptors. A European-funded batch awaits US authorisation, and Hegseth has not approved Kyiv's latest request. US warning intelligence on Russian strikes has resumed.
Diplomacy and Funding
After meeting Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October, the Kremlin said Putin agreed to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine, reportedly possibly in mid-November. AP says the sides remain far apart on terms. Russia's 2026 budget deficit is projected at 7.3 trillion rubles. The test is whether Hegseth signs off the European-funded Patriots before any mid-November talks.