Energy Truce Unimplemented
Trump announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October with no published scope, monitoring or start date. The Kremlin says Putin is not considering an energy truce, and Pollar reports he will discuss only security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine, not a ceasefire.
Russian missiles and drones hit Kyiv overnight into 22 October. Ukrainian authorities report at least one killed and 22 wounded, with damage to homes, energy, rail and metro. Moscow says it downed 808 Ukrainian drones, unverified. Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres have disrupted services and AI research, AP reports.
Air Defence Gap
Ukraine says its Patriot stocks are close to exhaustion as ballistic attacks intensify ahead of winter. European-funded interceptors are held up in the US pending Pentagon approval, and Kyiv will buy equipment through a NATO procurement agency, the Financial Times reports.
Diplomacy
Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov says Putin accepts renewed trilateral talks in principle after 10 November, but timing, venue and agenda are unsettled. Zelenskyy backs a freeze on the current line, with guarantees negotiated afterwards, and says the strikes show no real change in Moscow. European governments are seeking a single envoy to face Putin. The test is whether Patriots arrive before talks begin.