World·since 26 May·1,155 entries
The Middle East after Gaza
The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.
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This week16 entries
State of playtoday 20:27
US-Iran Track
Trump said a deal with Tehran is not necessary and withdrew Vice President Vance from diplomacy. Reuters reports he told advisers on 14 November he may hold off attacking Iran unless Tehran or the Houthis provoke anew.
On 15 November the Revolutionary Guards said they launched six drones at a US base in Bahrain as retaliation for US actions. Bahrain said it intercepted several aerial attacks; the claims are unverified. Tehran said a diplomatic path stays open, while Mohsen Rezaei said Washington's reply to the Hormuz proposal misses Iran's conditions.
Chokepoints
Iranian state media reported three tankers hit mines near Hormuz, unverified. Gulf stock markets mostly closed lower on 15 November. At Bab el-Mandeb, Yemeni government forces withdrew from the Dhubab airport area, apparently ending a six-week counteroffensive and giving the Houthis control.
Saudi Front and Gaza
The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and three drones over the Eastern Province, and reported expanded Saudi airstrikes on Houthi targets. Israel killed Hamas Rafah commander Samir Abu Younis on 15 November. Next test: whether Trump's restraint survives the Bahrain strike.
What comes next
Open questions
- Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?
- Will Washington accept Tehran's demand to lift the port blockade and ease sanctions before nuclear issues are addressed?
Who is who8
Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister
Says talks depend on Washington first meeting Iran's seven demands, and that mediators stopped travelling after the US midterms.
9 Nov
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force
Said on 15 November it launched six drones at a US base in Bahrain as retaliation, a claim that is unverified, while Tehran says a diplomatic path stays open.
15 Nov
Donald Trump US President
Says a deal with Tehran is not necessary, keeps the blockade, and reportedly may hold off attacking Iran unless provoked anew.
14 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Withdrawn from diplomatic efforts on Iran by Trump, per Reuters.
13 Nov
Qatar Mediator between US and Iran
Seeks an interim deal to restore Hormuz traffic, joined Cairo talks on the Gaza ceasefire and signed a mutual-defence pact with Türkiye.
15 Nov
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Asked G7 allies in Paris on 11 November to help secure Hormuz shipping and got no commitments; calls Iranian demands unacceptable.
13 Nov
France G7 host and European power
Says fighting must stop before it sends assets such as minesweepers to Hormuz.
11 Nov
Yemeni government forces Yemen's internationally recognised government troops
Said on 15 November they are leaving the Dhubab airport area near Bab el-Mandeb, leaving the Houthis more control.
15 Nov
Numbers
Palestinians killed in Gaza since the ceasefire (Gaza Health Ministry)
1,471→1,600 people
09/10 → 15/11 · apnews.com
Amsterdam gas price (EUR/MWh)
90→97→100 EUR/MWh
20/10 → 26/10 → 28/10 · pollar.news
Brent crude price (USD)
112→89.66 USD
20/10 → 10/11 · pollar.news
Promises9
Iranunclear
Tehran will reply to Qatar's seven-day draft framework by the end of the week.
28 Oct · by end of week of 28 October · reuters.com
Badr Abdelattykept
Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.
13 Oct · bloomberg.com
Donald Trumpbroken
The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.
9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
The US will keep the blockade of Iranian ports in place.
13 Nov
Donald Trumpopen
US annual military aid to Israel will end at the end of 2026.
5 Nov · due 31 Dec · pollar.news
Chinaopen
China will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue.
27 Oct · bloomberg.com
United Kingdomopen
Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.
20 Oct · ft.com
Abbas Araqchiopen
Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen
The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,155 entries since 26 May
9–15 November16 entries
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 15 November they launched six drones at a US military base in Bahrain in retaliation for US actions. Bahrain said it intercepted several attacks; the claims are unverified. Tehran added that a diplomatic path remains open.
Israeli forces said an overnight strike on 15 November killed Samir Mahmoud Hassan Abu Younis, commander of Hamas's Rafah Brigade, and Hamas confirmed his death. Gaza's Health Ministry reports at least 1,600 deaths since the ceasefire took effect.
Yemen's government forces said on 15 November they are withdrawing from the Dhubab airport area near Bab el-Mandeb, redeploying toward Aden. The move leaves the Iran-backed Houthis with greater influence over the strait linking Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
Trump told advisers he might refrain from attacking Iran unless Tehran or the Houthis provoke anew, Reuters reported on 14 November. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Erdoğan reportedly urged him not to resume strikes, and US officials cite blockade damage to Iran's economy.
Intelligence chiefs from Egypt, Türkiye and Qatar met in Cairo on 13 November and agreed to advance the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including an end to attacks, per Egypt's MENA agency. They urged more humanitarian aid as heavy rain hit displaced Palestinians.
Turkish President Erdoğan and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed a mutual-defence agreement in Istanbul on 13 November, per the Turkish presidency. It adds a formal security component to ties between two states active in regional mediation.
A confidential IAEA report circulated on 13 November says Iran told the agency inspection talks cannot resume while it faces threats of further attacks. The agency is also increasingly concerned about an undeclared-access Isfahan enrichment plant and damaged sites barred to inspectors.
Trump said a deal with Tehran was not necessary and pulled Vice President Vance from diplomatic efforts, Reuters reported. The administration said the blockade and sanctions are working and will keep the blockade of Iranian ports in place.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 13 November they targeted a US early-warning radar in Bahrain, a reported escalation against American military infrastructure in a Gulf state. The claim was reported by Reuters; damage was not stated.
An Israeli strike early on 12 November on Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis killed at least six and wounded about 20, per Gaza civil-defence officials. Israel said it hit a Hamas site. It is among the deadliest attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire.
Iranian state television reported on 12 November that the clerical Assembly of Experts called reviewing withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and changing military doctrine an "unavoidable necessity", as Tehran rejected removing enriched material from Iran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked G7 partners in Paris on 11 November to help secure Hormuz shipping and received no response. France and other allies said fighting must stop before they can offer help such as minesweepers.
Brent crude fell to $89.66 on 10 November, its lowest since 31 August, after Trump said military action against Iran was not currently necessary. Equities and airline shares rose on hopes that easing tensions would cut fuel costs.
Saudi-led coalition forces intercepted two missiles aimed at Riyadh, a ballistic missile targeting the south and a drone over the Eastern Province on 10 November. Reuters tied the surge to Houthi advances toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Trump said on 9 November, after meeting Qatar's prime minister and Vance in Washington, that the conflict with Iran is "militarily effectively over", while stressing a nuclear settlement is still needed. The White House has not confirmed a breakthrough.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 9 November there had been no breakthrough in indirect talks with Iran. He called Iranian demands unacceptable and said the sides were not close to an agreement, though mediators keep presenting ideas.
2–8 November17 entries · 1 key
Syria has sent military advisers to Saudi Arabia and is preparing to deploy fighters along the kingdom's border, three officials told AP. No Syrian fighters had been sent to Yemen at publication, as the Houthi missile campaign against Saudi cities widens.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on 8 November that the US Treasury asked Baghdad to close all but two crossings with Iran, adding economic pressure on Tehran. Iraq had already closed the Sheeb crossing for security reviews and detection equipment.
US Central Command announced Task Force Iron Gate on 8 November to disrupt Iran's land transport of weapons and materials, extending pressure beyond the naval blockade. Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported six tankers affected by fires in Hormuz within two days.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on 8 November it had ended its self-imposed 2,000-kilometre limit on ballistic-missile range, as Iranian media reported explosions on Qeshm, Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas.
US Central Command said an American aircraft fired precision munitions on 7 November at a St Kitts-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, disabling it. CENTCOM said the vessel ignored warnings after visiting an Iranian port, under the months-long naval blockade.
Two missiles struck Qeshm Island on 7 November, according to Iran's Tasnim agency, with no immediate information on damage. AP reported the US carried out another targeted strike on Iran while Tehran weighed Qatari mediation proposals.
Qatar's International Media Office said on 7 November that reports Washington and Tehran had failed to reach agreement were false and misleading. Doha said it remains in close coordination with both sides and urged them not to wait for a perfect moment.
A Saudi deputy foreign minister rejected claims that the Houthis had presented demands to Riyadh, calling them baseless. He accused the Houthis of attacking commercial shipping and civilian and economic infrastructure while rejecting peace efforts.
Trump said annual US military aid to Israel will end at the end of the year, after Democratic midterm gains and a Vance post questioning unconditional support unsettled Israeli officials and deepened doubts about the alliance.
Vice President J.D. Vance said the Iran war was a reason Republicans lost ground in the midterms, and the Wall Street Journal reported he opposed the conflict from the start. Trump agreed the war hurt his party but said it was worth it.
President Isaac Herzog accepted the certified results of the 27 October election and began consultations on forming a government. Raam, an Arab-led party, said it would recommend Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government.
Yemen's Houthi movement said on 4 November it targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, a radar installation and a command centre in Jazan. AP could not verify the claims, and Saudi authorities issued danger alerts for Riyadh, Jazan and Najran.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 4 November that four oil tankers were destroyed by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two more vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. The claims came a day after US strikes near Qeshm Island.
President Trump told the Financial Times on 3 November that the US has no immediate plans to attack Iran again, after US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect talks with Tehran continue through Qatari mediators.
Saudi Aramco reported adjusted net income of $31.2 billion for July to September, up 9%, on 3 November. Higher oil prices lifted earnings even as Houthi attacks on its facilities and the war involving Iran continued to disrupt the Gulf.
A US official told AP that American forces carried out defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on 3 November, with explosions heard on Qeshm Island and near Bandar Lengeh. Oil prices rose, and it is the first reported US strike on Iranian territory during the mediation.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has given the government certain powers to negotiate an end to the war. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between Tehran and Washington, which has not yet met Iranian officials directly.
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