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World·since 26 May·1,099 entries

The Middle East after Gaza

The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.

AI text ·

WeekStateNextWhoPromisesChronicle

This week17 entries

State of playtoday 10:26

US-Iran Track

Trump's pre-midterm strike halt holds, but on 23 October he said the US "knocked the hell out" of Iran and could act again. On 24 October Iran's armed forces chief Gen. Ali Abdollahi said US warships would be barred from the Persian Gulf and rejected US claims that the nuclear sites were destroyed.

The State Department cut staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after a US intelligence memo said Iranian plots against Americans were advanced. US officials denied a link to new strikes. Iran ties reopening Hormuz to lifting the blockade and sanctions; Rubio called a deal "extremely difficult" on 21 October.

Saudi-Houthi War

The Saudi-Houthi truce unravelled in July. Houthi strikes have hit Dammam airport, a Saudi oil field and a Shabwa camp where 75 recruits died, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters. On 24 October the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Riyadh. Britain is sending jets and France is protecting energy sites.

Diplomacy and Markets

Saudi Arabia postponed the EU–GCC summit planned for 24 October. Brent hit $112 on 20 October. Next tests: Egypt's 26 October vote and Israel's 27 October election.

What comes next

  • 26/10in 2 daysEgypt's parliament votes on military involvement for Saudi Arabia
  • 27/10in 3 daysIsraeli election
  • 03/11in 10 daysUS midterm elections, deadline of Trump's no-strike pledge on Iran

Open questions

  • Will Iran accept the US proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days?
  • Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?

Who is who8

Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister

Says Tehran will give diplomacy another chance if Washington shows sincere commitment, and wants Hormuz, frozen oil funds and sanctions relief addressed first.

22 Oct

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force

Says a supertanker with over two million barrels hit a mine after leaving the permitted corridor, and counts nine ships mined in the strait.

24 Oct

Donald Trump US President

Has ruled out new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms, but said on 23 October the US knocked the hell out of Iran and could act again.

23 Oct

Houthis Yemeni armed movement

Struck Dammam airport, a Saudi oil field and a Shabwa camp where 75 recruits died, widening the campaign into Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

24 Oct

Saudi-led coalition Military force in Yemen

Ordered civilians out around the Sabah oil station in Sanaa ahead of a planned operation after striking Houthi energy sites.

15 Oct

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Egyptian President

Said on 17 October Egypt would take any measures necessary to defend Saudi Arabia; the parliamentary vote is set for 26 October.

21 Oct

United Kingdom Britain's government

Will send RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia, not strikes on Houthi targets, according to the FT.

23 Oct

Hakan Fidan Turkish foreign minister

Hosted Egyptian, Pakistani, Saudi, British, French and German counterparts in Istanbul on 23 October on the US-Iran war, Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza and Yemen.

24 Oct

Promises5

United Kingdomopen

Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.

20 Oct · ft.com

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattyopen

Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.

13 Oct · bloomberg.com

Donald Trumpopen

The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.

9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen

The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.

9 Oct · pollar.news

Abbas Araqchiopen

Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.

Chronicle1,099 entries since 26 May

19–25 October16 entries

24/10

The State Department reduced personnel at US embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE on 24 October after a US intelligence memo said Iran had stepped up efforts to target Americans. The embassies stay open; Saudi Arabia faces a separate departure order.

pollar.news · full article

23/10

Israel ordered a total lockdown of the West Bank on 23 October after a shooting in Hebron killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded others. The Israel Defense Forces then raided the city, adding a West Bank front to the strains on the Gaza ceasefire.

repubblica.it · sueddeutsche.de

23/10

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was due to host counterparts from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France and Germany in Istanbul on 23 October. The agenda covers the US-Iran war, navigation in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza and Yemen.

dw.com

23/10

Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, Reuters reported on 23 October, as fighting intensified around the world's largest crude exporter and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. Oil prices were little changed after rising 4% the previous day.

reuters.com

22/10

The UAE closed all beaches and coastal areas in Umm Al Quwain after a tanker leak. Satellite imagery showed the slick had spread more than 35 km from the tanker by 21 October and was extending toward island habitats.

pollar.news · full article

22/10

After talks in Doha on 22 October, President Macron and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani urged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, unhindered aid, freedom of navigation in Hormuz without constraints or fees, and backing for a framework to disarm Hezbollah.

aljazeera.com

22/10

Houthi attacks killed at least one person and wounded eight at a civilian airport in Dammam, and a separate drone attack killed two people at a Saudi oil field, Reuters reported on 22 October. It extends the Houthi campaign into Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

rmb.reuters.com

21/10

The State Department is preparing an ordered departure of personnel and family members from several Gulf missions over the risk of renewed fighting, Reuters reported on 21 October. The US embassy in Riyadh warned of further Houthi attacks after strikes affecting Riyadh's airport.

rmb.reuters.com

21/10

A Houthi missile strike on a military camp near Shabwa killed 75 Yemeni recruits and wounded more than 200, the Associated Press reported on 21 October. It is the deadliest reported attack since fighting in Yemen intensified, far above earlier tolls of at least 18.

apnews.com

21/10

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude burned after striking a mine, claiming it left the permitted corridor despite warnings. Tehran counts nine ships that have hit mines in the strait.

pollar.news

20/10

Brent crude rose as high as $112 a barrel on 20 October, a five-month high, while European gas on the Amsterdam exchange passed 90 euros per megawatt-hour, its highest since late 2022, as Hormuz ship attacks and Houthi strikes intensified.

pollar.news · full article

20/10

Turkey submitted the Saudi-Pakistani mutual-defence agreement to its parliament for ratification, Bloomberg reported on 20 October. The pact could facilitate military assistance to Saudi Arabia as it faces Houthi attacks, widening the response beyond the Saudi-led coalition.

bloomberg.com

20/10

The UK will deploy Royal Air Force fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, the Financial Times reported on 20 October. The mission is defensive air patrol, not strikes on Houthi targets, adding Britain to France in shielding Saudi territory.

ft.com

19/10

The UN World Food Programme said on 19 October it will reduce planned monthly assistance in Gaza from 1.6 million to 1.1 million people because of funding shortages. It said more than two-thirds of the population face acute hunger, with 200,000 in emergency conditions.

dw.com · reuters.com

19/10

Three Houthi ballistic missiles struck the al-Alam camp in Shabwa province on 19 October, and the Houthis called it a Saudi-backed base. Reported death tolls range from 18 to 30, the deadliest single strike in the recent escalation against Saudi-backed forces.

pollar.news · full article

19/10

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said a tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing it of using an unauthorised southern route with tracking systems off. The ship's name, flag and origin were not disclosed.

pollar.news · full article

12–18 October19 entries

18/10

Oil exports from Gulf producers other than Iran rose above their pre-war level in the week to 18 October, using pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers, while the Strait of Hormuz carries only about 82% of its earlier volume.

pollar.news · full article

17/10

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on 17 October that Egypt would take any measures necessary to defend Saudi Arabia, and parliament scheduled an emergency session, moving beyond the offer of support Foreign Minister Abdelatty made on 13 October.

dw.com

16/10

UKMTO said two vessels transiting near Saudi Arabia were hit on 16 October: a tanker attacked from a small boat with a rocket-propelled grenade, and a second struck by an unidentified projectile. No group claimed responsibility.

uat.apnews.com

16/10

The Trump administration announced Iran-related sanctions on 16 October against 16 individuals and 10 entities, per a Treasury notice. Other reporting said the list included an Iraqi bank accused of helping channel US dollars to Iran.

middleeasteye.net · foxnews.com

16/10

France began deploying military assets to help protect Saudi energy facilities, Al Jazeera reported on 16 October, as the US embassy in Riyadh restricted staff travel over possible attacks on Saudi airports amid the Houthi campaign.

aljazeera.com

15/10

The Houthis struck Yemen's presidential palace complex in Aden on 15 October, saying they targeted Saudi military personnel and weapons depots there. Yemeni officials said two security guards were killed, extending the Houthi campaign against Saudi-backed forces.

rmb.reuters.com

15/10

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said on 15 October that the EU–Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Riyadh is expected to be postponed because Saudi Arabia is under Houthi attack, delaying high-level European–Gulf diplomacy.

bloomberg.com

14/10

The UN peacekeeping chief said on 14 October that major questions remain over southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and the risk of renewed fighting if Iran-Israel hostilities resume. The EU plans a training mission for Lebanon's army, not a replacement for UNIFIL's monitoring role.

apnews.com

14/10

Netanyahu said on 14 October he does not support a pre-emptive attack on Iran before Israel's 27 October election, Reuters reported, while warning Iran and Hezbollah against attacks. Defence Minister Katz threatened further territorial action against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

reuters.com

14/10

Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said a container ship carrying more than 2,500 containers sank after striking a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz on 14 October. Iranian authorities gave few details, and who laid the mine and any casualty figure are unconfirmed.

apnews.com · indianexpress.com

14/10

UKMTO reported on 14 October that a container ship and a tanker were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials described the attacks as part of a broader effort to restrict passage, pushing oil prices higher.

dw.com · afp.com · bloomberg.com

14/10

Axios, Channel 12 and N12 reported that Netanyahu and Trump discussed a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran ahead of the midterm votes. The White House called the report false. It bears on the halt in US strikes that underpins the Hormuz talks.

pollar.news · full article

13/10

The Saudi-led coalition told civilians to leave the area around the Yemen Oil Company's Sabah central station in Sanaa on 13 October ahead of a planned military operation. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree threatened a "harsh and painful" response against Riyadh.

clickorlando.com

13/10

Israel told foreign airlines that pilots and cabin crew holding the nationality of 31 mostly Muslim-majority countries may not fly into its airspace, and Air France says it is complying. The rule followed an alleged 30 September attempt to crash a flydubai flight into Ben Gurion airport.

pollar.news · full article

13/10

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said on 13 October that Cairo is prepared to provide any support Riyadh requests as Houthi attacks hit Saudi airports. He did not say whether this includes military assistance.

bloomberg.com

13/10

Mohammed bin Salman rejected an Israeli proposal for Saudi participation in military action against the Houthis, Israeli media reported, as cited by Anadolu on 13 October. The idea was raised through US mediation. Riyadh still has no relations with Israel and ties normalization to Palestinian statehood.

haberintelifi.aa.com.tr

12/10

India's Foreign Ministry said on 12 October that two of the 11 Indian crew aboard the MT Petro Dolphin are missing after a drone struck the vessel in the Strait of Hormuz area, adding to pressure for coordinated maritime security.

economist.com

12/10

The Houthis said Saudi airstrikes struck the Hamdan and Thourah districts of Sana'a early on 12 October. Saudi authorities did not immediately comment. The reported retaliation followed Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports.

apnews.com

12/10

Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement on 12 October calling the Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport a dangerous escalation. They backed Saudi measures to deter further strikes and demanded an immediate, unconditional end to the attacks.

rmb.reuters.com

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Photo: heba alwahsh (Pexels)
Photo: heba alwahsh (Pexels)

What comes next

  • 26/10Egypt's parliament votes on military involvement for Saudi Arabiain 2 days
  • 27/10Israeli electionin 3 days
  • 03/11US midterm elections, deadline of Trump's no-strike pledge on Iranin 10 days

Open questions

  • Will Iran accept the US proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days?
  • Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?

Who is who 8

Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister

22 Oct

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force

24 Oct

Donald Trump US President

23 Oct

Houthis Yemeni armed movement

24 Oct

Saudi-led coalition Military force in Yemen

15 Oct

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Egyptian President

21 Oct

United Kingdom Britain's government

23 Oct

Hakan Fidan Turkish foreign minister

24 Oct

Promises 5

United Kingdomopen

Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.

20 Oct

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattyopen

Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.

13 Oct

Donald Trumpopen

The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.

9 Oct · due 3 Nov

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen

The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.

9 Oct

Abbas Araqchiopen

Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.

9 Oct · within days

how it is made

9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com