Budget Showdown
The 15–16 October European Council ended without agreement on the 2028–2034 budget. The Irish presidency's text cuts about €141 billion from the Commission's plan. Sweden will not support it, Meloni rejects cuts to agriculture, fisheries or cohesion, and Merz says cuts must reach all policy areas.
The Commission defends its €1.98 trillion proposal, and Cyprus wants a basic agreement in November and a deal by end-2026. Adoption needs unanimity among 27 and Parliament's consent.
Rules, Trade and Single Market
The summit refused the ETS2 postponement to 2030 sought by Poland, Italy and the Visegrad Group and ordered a Commission reassessment. Parliament agreed on 20 October to ease the 2035 car-emissions target. Germany, Italy and Belgium want an emergency brake on burdensome new laws. Per the Financial Times, capitals have softened plans to ease cross-border business operations, and EU ministers want talks with Beijing on curbing imports.
Enlargement and Border Questions
Kyiv wants remaining accession chapters opened on 15 December, and is discussing with Poland and Slovakia whether lorry customs checks could move inside the EU. The test is whether Sweden accepts a compromise at the 26–27 November summit, which also covers an estimated €70 billion Ukraine financing gap.