Europe·since 26 May·391 entries
European democracies and populism
Populist and anti-liberal political forces are gaining institutional ground within the European Union, testing and at times reshaping the boundaries of liberal democracy through electoral victories, legal challenges, and conflicts with EU frameworks.
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This week15 entries
State of playtoday 08:45
France Under Pressure
Marine Le Pen opened her 2027 presidential campaign on 25 October at a National Rally meeting in Orléans, pledging to "restore the rule of law" and saying a Jordan Bardella government would be "pluralist". Her programme includes capped household energy bills, tax cuts and a lower French contribution to the EU.
An Ipsos poll puts her at 32–34% in the first round. A POLITICO poll published on 26 October has her at 30.5% or more depending on the tested field, ahead of Mélenchon at 18.5% and Philippe at 16%. Interior Ministry figures show nearly 410,000 marchers on 24 October, with 1,314 arrests nationwide.
Germany and Czechia
Chancellor Friedrich Merz told a CSU conference on 24 October that the firewall against the AfD holds. In Prague, thousands protested on 25 October against the Babiš coalition's public-media funding plan, which passed a first vote with far-right SPD backing.
Parliament and Serbia
The Patriots for Europe are the third-largest group with 85 MEPs, while EPPO examines their staff offices and EPP consultant contracts. Serbia voted on 25 October, and first official results will show whether Vučić's party beat the student-backed movement.
What comes next
- in 2 daysEU presents its enlargement policy review
- in 3 daysFirst session of the new Berlin parliament
- in 9 daysCommission to announce Poland's migrant solidarity exemption
- in 34 daysSpanish Senate election
Open questions
- Can AfD and BSW reach a deal to elect Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt, or will government formation stay deadlocked?
- Will Le Pen's proposed constitutional referendum on "Islamist ideology" become a central issue in the 2027 French campaign?
Who is who8
Marine Le Pen National Rally leader
Formally launched her 2027 presidential campaign on 25 October in Orléans, pledging to restore the rule of law and calling a Bardella government 'pluralist'.
26 Oct
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) German far-right party
Is playing down the publication of more than 421,000 of its emails after a cyberattack.
25 Oct
Patriots for Europe European Parliament far-right group
Third-largest group at 85 MEPs after Konečná joined, now facing an EPPO search of staff offices over its predecessor's funds.
24 Oct
European People's Party Largest centre-right group in the European Parliament
Joined far-right groups to back a three-year methane rule delay and is under EPPO examination over consultant contracts.
25 Oct
Andrej Babiš Czech Prime Minister
His coalition, backed by the far-right SPD, won a first vote on public-media funding changes and now faces protests in Prague.
25 Oct
Bogdan Święczkowski Constitutional Tribunal president
Referred judge Bentkowska to the disciplinary spokesperson on 22 October as the dispute over oaths continues.
25 Oct
Karol Nawrocki Polish President
A presidential aide says he will likely veto the two abortion-loosening bills passed on 20 October.
21 Oct
Jarosław Kaczyński Law and Justice leader
Told a 17 October rally at the Constitutional Tribunal that the National Bank of Poland may soon need to be defended.
17 Oct
Numbers
AUR poll share in Romania (%)
40→40 %
10/10 → 22/10
Promises2
Marine Le Penopen
She would hold a constitutional referendum on a public veil ban and national preference.
10 Oct · if elected in 2027 · lemonde.fr
Marine Le Penopen
A Le Pen government would cut France's EU contribution by more than €11 billion from 2027.
8 Oct · from 2027 · lemonde.fr
Chronicle391 entries since 26 May
19–25 October17 entries
Thousands of people demonstrated in Prague on 25 October against the Czech government's plan to restructure public-media funding, a day after the coalition led by Andrej Babiš won a first parliamentary vote on the changes, AP reported.
The Czech governing coalition led by Andrej Babiš and backed by the far-right SPD advanced changes to public-media funding through an initial parliamentary vote on 24 October, Reuters reported. Critics say the measures could weaken broadcaster independence.
The European Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating alleged misuse of EU funds in contracts involving two Greek consultants to the centre-right EPP, POLITICO reported on 23 October. The probe targets the largest mainstream group, after searches at the Patriots for Europe on 21 October.
Constitutional Tribunal president Bogdan Święczkowski referred judge Magdalena Bentkowska to the disciplinary spokesperson on 22 October after she led Krystian Markiewicz into the judges' section. The dispute over oaths before the president continues.
Romanian prosecutors sent AUR vice-president and lawmaker Dan Tănase to trial on 22 October over alleged incitement to hatred and discrimination against foreign workers, citing his August 2025 social-media remarks. AUR polls at about 40%, making it Romania's most popular party.
The European Parliament adopted a position on 22 October delaying the EU's methane regulations by three years. The European People's Party joined far-right groups to secure the majority, aligning Parliament with industry concerns about supply disruption.
Czech communist MEP Kateřina Konečná joined the Patriots for Europe on 21 October, lifting the group to 85 MEPs and past the European Conservatives and Reformists as the European Parliament's third-largest group.
Officials acting for the European Public Prosecutor's Office searched staff offices of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament on 21 October, Reuters reported. The probe concerns alleged EU-funds mismanagement by predecessor Identity and Democracy, where Parliament found €4.3 million in irregular items.
More than 421,000 emails linked to Germany's AfD were published online after a cyberattack, according to reporting on 21 October. The party is playing down the leak, and its political impact is unclear.
A Lyon court convicted 18 people after Monday hearings, and Paris heard about 70 cases on 20 October, in the first fast-track sentencing after the riots. Police are preparing a massive deployment for a Yellow Vest protest called for 24 October.
Poland's parliament approved two bills on 20 October that would loosen strict abortion rules, including decriminalisation measures, Bloomberg reported. A presidential aide said a veto by President Karol Nawrocki is likely.
French authorities announced localized night curfews in central Paris, Lyon and other cities on 20 October after protests over living costs turned violent. AP reported at least 2,400 arrests, and Prime Minister Lecornu said a large security operation is planned for Saturday.
MEPs approved an emergency debate on recent violence in France, Italy and Belgium on 20 October, RTÉ reported, after competing far-right and far-left motions were rejected. The adopted motion was backed by the EPP and the ECR.
People's Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo confirmed on 20 October that his party is discussing coordination with Vox on Senate lists for the 29 November election, aiming to secure a majority and counter a Socialist-led left-wing agreement.
Romania's parliament approved Luca Niculescu as prime minister on 20 October after three failed attempts to form a government. The PNL-Social Democrat arrangement lasts six months, by which time a longer-term coalition deal is required, and was partly meant to avert snap elections.
Romania's National Liberals and Social Democrats agreed on 19 October to support independent prime minister-designate Luca Niculescu, POLITICO reported. The government is meant to last six months, with the PNL outside the cabinet, and aims to prevent an early election that could benefit AUR.
Macron refused the resignation offered by Interior Minister Laurent Nunez on 19 October, Reuters reported, asking him to stay to preserve police command and develop new measures against looting after protests over living costs turned violent.
12–18 October13 entries
Nationwide demonstrations in France on 17 October over inflation and education standards involved clashes, fires and looting, with more than 160 arrests. Marine Le Pen, who leads presidential polling, blamed the far left and backed the police.
ANO won no seat in the second round of Czech partial Senate elections, losing the only mandate it had been defending. First-round results indicate the government coalition will not reach a Senate majority, leaving opposition parties in control of the chamber.
Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński told a demonstration in front of the Constitutional Tribunal on 17 October that the National Bank of Poland may soon need to be defended. It follows a Sejm committee's recommendation of State Tribunal proceedings against governor Glapiński.
EU leaders ended their 16 October summit without agreeing a timetable for the 2028–34 budget, with Council President António Costa pressing for a rapid deal while governments stayed divided. Marine Le Pen argued a pre-election agreement would be a democratic scandal.
The AfD and BSW jointly backed a motion in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament on 15 October demanding an immediate end to German military support for Ukraine. It followed an early-October meeting of the parties, though the state classifies the AfD as confirmed right-wing extremist.
The European party grouping that includes Germany's AfD, Europe of Sovereign Nations, filed a 160-page submission on 15 October denying breaches of EU values. It offered new rules to hold national member parties to account, Politico reported, as it seeks to resist action by the EU party watchdog.
EU ministers on 14 October acknowledged rule-of-law reforms under Prime Minister Péter Magyar but concluded further changes were needed, leaving the Article 7 proceedings, opened by the European Parliament in 2018, unresolved.
Maciej Berek's oath as a Constitutional Tribunal judge began in the Sejm on 14 October, with Marshal Włodzimierz Czarzasty presiding. The ceremony takes place in parliament, as the Venice Commission has just issued an opinion on the president's powers over such oaths.
The Greens and SPD suspended exploratory coalition negotiations with Berlin's Left Party on 13 October while they assess whether antisemitism measures agreed the previous week remain in force, Reuters reported. The dispute also touches the Israel–Gaza conflict.
A Romanian court transferred pro-Russian former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu from police custody to 30 days of house arrest on 13 October, Reuters reported, while authorities investigate suspected fraud.
Hungary's parliament approved on 13 October, by 139 votes to 51, an amendment removing anti-LGBTQ provisions from the 2021 child protection law. It is the first rollback of Orbán-era restrictions since Prime Minister Péter Magyar took office in May.
Labour Minister and SPD co-leader Bärbel Bas resigned on 12 October after open attacks from coalition partners, Reuters reported. Chancellor Merz said the change would not alter the coalition agreement, as the government faces pressure from AfD gains in eastern state elections.
The Sejm commission investigating Pegasus sent prosecutors notifications of possible offences concerning 11 people, including former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. It says the spyware ran without the required security accreditation and that data left Polish territory.
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