World·since 26 May·437 entries
China and the West: decoupling
The strategic de-risking of Western economies from China has become a reciprocal regulatory conflict, and a preliminary EU-China car deal now tests whether managed bargaining can coexist with pressure for wider import safeguards.
AI text how it is made
This week8 entries
State of playyesterday
Deal Terms
The 9 October EU-China understanding would cap Chinese hybrid and plug-in-hybrid exports at 350,000 vehicles a year for four years from 2027, rising 6% annually from the second year. The EU legal act to implement it is still pending, and quota allocation and treatment of European-brand cars made in China are unsettled.
Current countervailing duties cover battery-electric cars, while plug-in hybrids have largely been excluded, so Chinese makers are accelerating hybrid shipments before any cap.
Widening Scope
Von der Leyen has said the Commission will propose measures beyond hybrids. Duties on PET spunbond, a €2 small-parcel fee, a polyamide-6 case and provisional acrylic-esters duties followed between 30 October and 11 November. Brussels also weighs cutting dependence on China for semiconductors and pharmaceutical ingredients. A DiversifyEU proposal is expected in December.
The EU goods deficit with China is about €1bn a day, and October exports to the EU rose 24.3% year on year.
Technology Controls
Beijing has proposed export controls on 40 technologies and extended rare-earth waivers to 10 January. In Washington, lawmakers press for congressional oversight of AI-chip exports and chip tracking after a PLA-linked university obtained Nvidia H200 chips. Bessent frames the aim as de-risking, and Trump is expected to meet Xi at next week's APEC summit.
What comes next
- in 3 daysComment period closes on China's draft export curbs on 40 technologies
- in 19 daysHybrid cap reportedly expected to apply from early December
- in 59 daysChina's rare-earth export-control suspension expires unless extended again
Open questions
- Will all 27 member states approve the EU-China hybrid-car understanding?
- Will Beijing publish operational details of the understanding, including export volumes and tariff cuts?
Who is who8
Maroš Šefčovič EU Trade Commissioner
Says the 9 October understanding would cut Chinese hybrid and plug-in-hybrid exports to the EU by more than half over four years.
10 Oct
China's Ministry of Commerce Chinese trade authority
Kept duties of up to 267.4% on US n-propanol on 5 November and opened anti-dumping probes into EU and Japanese chemicals on 10 November, while rejecting EU trade-defence tools as protectionist.
10 Nov
European Commission EU executive
Will propose trade-defence measures in December, opened a polyamide-6 anti-dumping case on 6 November, published provisional acrylic-esters duties on 11 November, and faces a request from 14 MEPs to assess BYD as a security risk.
11 Nov
Valdis Dombrovskis EU Economics Commissioner
Calls the hybrid deal only a first step, since EU-China imbalances extend beyond cars.
13 Oct
European Parliament EU legislative chamber
Backed a resolution urging the Commission to consider the Anti-Coercion Instrument; 14 members asked on 4 November for a BYD security review.
7 Nov
France and Germany EU member-state governments
Agreed on 16 October to back revised car-emissions rules and to tie 'Made in EU' requirements to reciprocity and trade protection, possibly covering Chinese-built cars.
16 Oct
China Chinese government
Has proposed export curbs on 40 technologies, extended its rare-earth control suspension to 10 January, reportedly blocked SoftBank's $5.4 billion ABB robotics purchase, and seeks to stabilise ties with Europe.
9 Nov
Northwestern Polytechnical University PLA-linked Chinese university
Reuters found it bought two Nvidia H200 chips in October through a domestic supplier despite its US blacklisting.
11 Nov
Promises4
Ursula von der Leyenopen
The Commission will propose an instrument to limit market access and another to reduce single-supplier dependence, covering imports beyond hybrid cars.
16 Oct
European Commissionopen
The Commission will propose trade-defence initiatives in December to reduce EU dependence on China for critical supplies.
12 Oct · December 2026
China's Ministry of Commerceopen
China will keep facilitating EU-bound rare-earth and magnet licences through a green channel.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Chinaopen
China will lower tariffs on selected EU goods including car parts, olive oil and footwear under the 9 October understanding.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle437 entries since 26 May
9–15 November6 entries
Bank of Russia data show the yuan's share of payments for Russian exports fell to 20.8% in June 2026, from a 45.2% peak in May 2024, as US sanctions pressure built. Moscow's push to replace the dollar with the yuan has stalled.
Reuters reported on 11 November that Northwestern Polytechnical University purchased two Nvidia H200 processors in October through a domestic supplier, despite its US listing over military links. Its review also found other Chinese institutions acquiring restricted chips or using domestic cloud access, exposing export-control gaps.
An EU implementing regulation dated 10 November and published on 11 November applies provisional anti-dumping duties to acrylic esters from China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United States, adding a chemicals category to Brussels' expanding trade-defence caseload.
China opened anti-dumping investigations on 10 November into rubber-manufacturing compounds and an EU-made filament from the EU and Japan, according to reporting that day. The cases add Beijing's own trade-defence tools to the reciprocal pressure around EU measures on Chinese industrial goods.
Taiwan's defence minister said on 10 November that China is conducting "area denial" exercises in the Western Pacific involving an aircraft carrier and other naval formations, following increased Chinese military activity around the island.
China extended its suspension of selected rare-earth export controls and other countermeasures until 10 January, Reuters reported on 9 November. Beijing also prolonged suspension of an additional 24% tariff on US imports and port fees on US-linked vessels, keeping a 10% tariff.
2–8 November7 entries
China has proposed export controls on 40 technologies, a report published on 8 November said, banning exports of 14 and restricting 26 more. The list spans artificial intelligence, biotechnology and solar manufacturing; Chinese officials said it is not aimed at any country.
The Commission's Official Journal published a notice on 6 November initiating an anti-dumping proceeding into polyamide-6 imports from China. The case extends EU trade-defence scrutiny of Chinese goods beyond vehicles into industrial plastics inputs.
China's commerce ministry on 5 November kept anti-dumping duties of 254.4% to 267.4% and countervailing duties of 34.2% to 37.7% on US n-propanol for another five years. The chemical is used in electrolytes for lithium batteries in new-energy vehicles.
China has told SoftBank it will not approve its planned $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB's robotics business, the Financial Times reported on 5 November, citing people familiar. Reuters could not independently verify the report. It would be a Chinese veto of a deal involving a European company.
Fourteen European Parliament members asked the Commission on 4 November to assess whether BYD electric vehicles pose a security threat and consider restrictions, including exclusion from public procurement. They also asked the EU cybersecurity agency to weigh designating BYD a high-risk supplier.
The Commission and member states will provide €440 million in grants for chip start-ups and €85 million for a European chip-design platform offering tools, intellectual property and manufacturing access, Reuters reported on 4 November. The aim is less reliance on US and Chinese technology.
Oracle abandoned a chip-leasing contract with Tencent after US officials raised concerns, Reuters reported on 4 November. The deal would reportedly have given Tencent access to about 100,000 advanced AI chips otherwise restricted from China.
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