Explainer

Is this the first of a long run of Bank of England rate rises?

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The Bank of England has lifted its rate to 4%, its first rise in more than three years. Eight of nine members voted for it, and Catherine Mann wanted a bigger half-point move.

4%

Bank Rate after the latest riseSource: Financial Times News · 05.11.2026

Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt: Today's increase shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes.

“Today's increase shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes.”

Andrew Bailey

Inflation was 3.5% in September, and the Bank's central forecast has it climbing to 4.5% early next year, then 5% after that.

UK CPI inflation: September and Bank projections
  • 2026-093.5%
  • Q1 20274.5%
  • Q2 20275%

Traders now see 51 per cent odds of another rise in December. Bailey said that unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, this is unlikely to be the last rise.

51%

Market odds of a December riseSource: The Independent · 05.11.2026

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The story

Bank of England raises rates to 4% and warns more hikes may followRead the article

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