Zelensky would lose to three rivals in hypothetical runoff, Socis poll finds

First-round lead, second-round collapse

A poll conducted by the Ukrainian sociological research center Socis between July 28 and August 2 among 2,000 respondents on territories controlled by Kyiv shows that President Volodymyr Zelensky would lead a hypothetical first round of presidential elections with 22.3% of the vote, narrowly ahead of former armed forces commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi at 21.4%. The gap between the two is just 0.9 percentage points, well within the survey's +/- 2.6 percentage point margin of error. Former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov would place third with 13.1% among decided voters who declared their intention to vote. The survey was conducted using the CAPI method (personal interviews with tablets) and excluded residents of occupied Crimea, Russian-occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and areas with active combat operations.

Second-round defeats

In a hypothetical runoff, each of three rivals defeats Zelensky by a wide margin. Zaluzhnyi, now serving as ambassador to the United Kingdom, would win 66.2% to Zelensky's 33.8%. Kyrylo Budanov, formerly chief of the HUR military intelligence and now head of the Presidential Office, would take 60.3% against Zelensky's 39.7%. Fedorov would prevail with 63.8% to Zelensky's 36.2%. In every scenario, Zelensky's second-round support is roughly half that of his opponent.

Trust ranking places Zelensky sixth

A separate trust ranking from the same Socis poll places Zelensky sixth among Ukrainian political and military leaders. Zaluzhnyi tops the list with 27.8% of respondents expressing full trust and 37.1% expressing partial trust, while 11.6% somewhat distrust him and 18.1% do not trust him at all. Fedorov ranks second with 26.8% full trust and 37.8% partial trust, with 8.5% somewhat distrusting and 16.4% not trusting him at all. Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, commander of the Unmanned Forces, places third with 25.4% full trust and 25.8% partial trust. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Mykhailo Drapatyi follows at 24.0%, and Budanov at 23.8%. Zelensky sits sixth: 18.0% fully trust him, 24.5% partially trust him, 17.0% somewhat distrust him, and 37.0% do not trust him at all.

Public reaction to Fedorov's dismissal

The poll also found that over 60% of respondents view the dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov from the post of defense minister negatively or mostly negatively, and over 57% support protests against his removal. In a hypothetical parliamentary election, the political forces associated with Zaluzhnyi and Fedorov would receive the most votes.

Elections blocked by martial law

Presidential elections in Ukraine were constitutionally due in 2024, and parliamentary elections in 2023. Under the Ukrainian constitution, elections can be held no earlier than 90 days after the end of martial law, which has been in force since February 2022. The ongoing full-scale Russian invasion and organizational constraints make holding any vote impossible. Among respondents, 60% believe elections should be held immediately after a temporary cessation of hostilities and the end of martial law, while 25% think the country should wait longer before going to the polls.