JD Vance breaks with Trump over the Iran war after Republican midterm losses

Vance's break with Trump

Vice President JD Vance has been distancing himself from Donald Trump since September, according to a Reuters analysis of six of his speeches in that period. The speeches focused on economic nationalism, limiting US involvement in foreign conflicts and domestic security rather than on the president. Two people familiar with his strategy told Reuters the shift was deliberate, and that Vance and his advisers believed it could build his credibility regardless of Trump's slipping popularity. Three people familiar with the White House said Vance does not plan to break with the president.

The post and Trump's response

On 4 November, the day after the midterm elections, Vance wrote on social media that the war with Iran was one of the reasons Republicans lost control of Congress. He called for a swift end to the conflict, a focus on the cost of living, a change in foreign policy and a review of US relations with Israel. Trump acknowledged that the war hurt Republicans because of high fuel prices, but he continued to defend the decision to start it. Asked by reporters that day, he said he would not have done anything differently. Donald Trump Jr. and some conservative politicians backed the vice president's stance.

Stephen Miller takes over the White House office

On 6 November Trump replaced Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff with Stephen Miller, who had been her deputy. Wiles had reportedly known of Vance's position beforehand, but it was not established whether Trump had been told. Polityka.pl describes Miller as the main architect of the administration's immigration crackdown, in which ICE agents carried out mass detentions, and says he has played a central role in its foreign policy as well. The outlet argues the appointment means no concessions on the hard line, which may mean a more confrontational approach continues. Protests against the raids in many cities have turned into clashes in which agents used firearms, killing several protesters, according to the same outlet.

Republicans and the 2028 race

The Washington Post notes that Republicans have tried for 11 years to limit Trump's influence without success, even after the Capitol events of January 2021, when some party politicians backed his impeachment. Super PAC MAGA Inc., which supports the president, raised nearly 450 million dollars in the last election cycle, which lets Trump help loyal candidates and hamper rivals. Former Republican congressman Bob Good told the Washington Post that the party and Trump have become one, and that it is hard to say what Republicans stand for beyond backing Trump. The New Republic says the MAGA movement has lost its force, while Curt Mills of the American Conservative expects Republicans not to turn away from the president. The Economist predicts a sharp fight between Trump's supporters and politicians who blame him for the defeat.

The New York Times calls Vance the biggest loser of the election, arguing that his closeness to the Trump family, particularly Donald Trump Jr., makes it hard for him to distance himself from a tarnished brand. CNN reports that Vance has lost 18 percentage points in polls since the start of his term, and 30 points among independents, making him the least popular Republican vice president at this stage. Newsweek cites an October poll in which 44% of respondents rated him negatively. CNN also cites betting odds for his chances in the next presidential election falling from 33% to 22%.

All voters-18

Independents-30

All voters

-18 percentage points

Independents

-30 percentage points

Data from the article text

Vance has not said whether he will run in 2028, and Trump has not named a successor, though Vance is among the most often mentioned potential Republican candidates. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called the defeat a rejection of Republicans from Washington.