Pentagon weighs plan to withdraw up to 40,000 US troops from Europe

Scope of Proposed Troop Reductions

The United States Department of Defense is reviewing options to withdraw between 25,000 and 40,000 military personnel from Europe. The planned drawdown would remove between one-third and one-half of the approximately 80,000 American service members currently stationed on the continent. US European Command had previously scaled back its European presence from roughly 105,000 personnel deployed after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to approximately 80,000 by 2025. On 18 September 2026, General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of US and NATO forces in Europe, is scheduled to present an analysis outlining four distinct courses of action to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. A final recommendation on European troop posture is due to reach Hegseth by 6 November 2026 before being submitted to President Donald Trump.

Geographic Impact on Base Locations

Drawdown options focus primarily on Germany, Italy, and Spain, which together accommodate the largest permanent American military presence in Europe. US Department of Defense data from late 2025 recorded 36,436 active-duty troops in Germany, 12,662 in Italy, and 3,814 in Spain. Germany serves as the central operational hub for US forces on the continent, hosting Ramstein Air Base as well as the dual headquarters for US European Command and US Africa Command. Italian bases host key US Air Force installations, while facilities in southern Spain accommodate naval and aviation squadrons. Associated cuts under consideration extend beyond ground personnel to include warships, air assets, and weapons systems, with earlier plans in June contemplating the removal of 50 of 150 fighter aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and a guided-missile submarine.

Eastern Flank Realignment and Poland

Drawdown plans under review also examine transferring selected air, naval, and ground capabilities east toward countries on NATO's eastern flank. The Polish government confirmed in August 2026 that bilateral negotiations were underway regarding the establishment of a permanent US military installation, referred to as Fort Trump. President Donald Trump addressed the status of the discussions on Truth Social.

Thanks to the courageous leadership of my friend, Karol Nawrocki, President of Poland, significant progress is being made toward establishing a US Army base in Poland. If this happens, the location will be announced soon.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki responded on social media that Warsaw would do everything possible to secure the best possible site for the base, affirming readiness to continue defense cooperation.

Political Resistance and Strategic Debate

The prospect of large troop withdrawals has drawn bipartisan concern in the US Congress and among European governments, who contend that a drawdown could embolden Russian aggression. Lawmakers in Washington are attempting to establish a statutory troop floor in the annual military budget to restrict unilateral force reductions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously acted to slow similar drawdown proposals within the administration. European officials, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, have urged that any force adjustments be carried out gradually to allow European partners time to field replacement capabilities in long-range missiles, satellite reconnaissance, and aerial refuelling tankers. Pentagon officials maintain that the review aligns with the NATO 3.0 concept, where European members assume primary responsibility for conventional territorial defense while the United States maintains its nuclear deterrent umbrella.