US plans sharp cut in NATO aircraft and warships, redeploys carrier and sub to Indo-Pacific

Planned cuts detailed

The United States intends to cut the number of F-16 and F-15E fighter jets available for NATO operations from approximately 150 to 100, and to reduce maritime reconnaissance aircraft from 26 to 15. All eight aerial refueling tanker jets that had been allocated to European missions would be withdrawn. Beyond fixed-wing reductions, the proposal calls for redeploying a missile-launching submarine, an aircraft carrier, several warships and one of the two bomber groups currently assigned to European defense. The Pentagon has not commented on the figures, but the US European Command last week acknowledged a review of commitments, stating it would “rightsize” its contributions to the NATO Force Model. The New York Times, which broke the story, noted that the plan was detailed in a written document whose figures have not been disputed by the Trump administration.

Shift in strategic focus

The document, transmitted to allies at the beginning of June, offers the most explicit picture yet of the Trump administration’s determination to lower the US military footprint in Europe and to redirect resources toward the Indo-Pacific. A May Reuters report had already signaled Washington’s intention to pare back the capabilities it offers allies during major crises. The pace of the changes may be quicker than some European capitals anticipated; US officials have indicated the measures will take effect “in the near future,” without providing a precise calendar. Observers warn the cuts could undermine NATO’s deterrence posture at a moment when Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to test European security. The reductions are expected to curtail NATO’s capacity for long-range strikes and maritime patrol, functions that have been heavily reliant on American assets.

Burden-sharing and the Ankara summit

The proposed reductions coincide with persistent White House pressure on European governments to raise defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP. President Trump has repeatedly accused allies of under-investing in their own militaries and of leaning excessively on US protection. The issue will dominate the next NATO summit, scheduled for early July in Ankara, Turkey, where all 32 member states are expected. Trump has confirmed his attendance.

We are still in NATO, but NATO needs significant changes.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the remark in early June, underlining Washington’s insistence on an overhaul of the alliance’s operating model.

European response and contingency plans

European officials, caught off guard by the speed and scope of the cuts, are racing to assess the fallout. Several EU countries have accelerated their own rearmament programs in recent years, driven by the war in Ukraine and by uncertainty over the durability of US security guarantees. While US troop levels on the continent will remain substantial — Trump recently announced the deployment of roughly 5,000 extra soldiers to Poland, shortly after ordering the withdrawal of a similar number from Germany — the loss of high-end enablers such as tankers, submarines and bombers will be hard to replace in the short term. Analysts caution that a diminished US forward presence could erode NATO’s ability to monitor Russian military activity and to sustain complex operations at distance, even as the alliance insists its collective-defense commitment remains unchanged.