US midterm polls open as Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats 84% chance of House control

Voting opens across the country

Polling stations opened on Tuesday, 3 November, for the US midterm elections, with the first ones in Vermont opening at 10:00 Lisbon time. Polls in Hawaii and Adak, in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, opened at 17:00 Lisbon time, which meant every region of the country had begun voting. The elections will decide control of the House of Representatives and a share of the Senate, and they fall halfway through Donald Trump's second term. In Fort Greene, one of Brooklyn's wealthiest neighbourhoods, voting started at 06:00 local time, and New York State will elect 26 members of the House. Candidates face no mandatory cooling-off period, so they can keep campaigning until the polls close. Results were not yet available in the articles.

Brooklyn voters put democracy first

Several voters in Fort Greene told Lusa that defending democracy weighs more heavily for them than the economy, even though national polls show the economy as the biggest influence on how Americans vote. One voter, identified only as John, said his main goal was to see Trump leave the White House and that he would vote for Democrats. He acknowledged being financially comfortable and said many millions of Americans cannot say the same amid the high cost of living. He argued that the economy cannot work without functioning institutions, and that corruption would undermine it. He added that the country had been good for many years, and that he did not want that to end.

Trump expects a better result than forecast

In a telephone interview with Fox News, Trump said he expected Republican results to be better than forecast and urged voters to back Republican candidates. He credited more than 20 rallies held during the campaign, mostly in states that traditionally favour Republicans but where Democrats had gained ground in polls. He described opposition candidates as 'radicals' and 'jihadists', and said the United States was living through one of the best moments in its history while Europe was falling apart. Trump said he would follow the results from the White House. On Truth Social he urged Republican votes in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Michigan, states that matter for the Senate.

Forecasts and a possible lame-duck presidency

The Decision Desk HQ projection model gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House and 65% of recapturing the Senate majority. If Republicans lose both chambers, Trump would have to rely on presidential decrees to advance his agenda and would be expected to veto most bills Democrats pass. Trump has admitted he would act as a 'Mr. Veto' in that case, since overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in each chamber. The new Congress takes office in January. Democrats have raised questions about Trump's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and his stock market dealings, and a third impeachment process is considered possible. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy could come under pressure, as the House would likely begin by issuing subpoenas for testimony or documents.

House majority84%

Senate majority65%

House majority

84 %

Senate majority

65 %

Data from the article text

Economic record ahead of the vote

Before the vote, US inflation reached 3.6% in September, and federal debt hit $40.2 trillion, roughly double its 2016 level. The 2025 goods trade deficit was a record above $1.2 trillion, as the country bought more from abroad than it sold. Interest rates sit between 3.75% and 4%, compared with 2.5% in the euro zone and 3% in China. Trump had long wanted low rates for competitive reasons, but he lost each time he pressed the Federal Reserve during his six years in office. That held even for Fed chairs he chose himself, such as Jerome Powell in November 2017 and Kevin Warsh in May 2026.