Trump's Russian diesel deal and energy truce put pressure on Kyiv
Russia struck a Kharkiv power plant within hours of an energy truce that Donald Trump announced on Sunday, 11 October. US officials have reportedly threatened Kyiv with cuts to intelligence sharing and arms supplies.
The diesel deal
On Friday, 9 October, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Vladimir Putin had committed to supply Russian diesel for the American and world markets, saying prices would fall quickly. According to Deutsche Welle's account of the post, Russia would immediately provide more than 300,000 tons, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1,000,000 tons immediately after, and then 3,000,000 tons as its refineries allowed. The US Treasury Department then granted a temporary authorization for the sale, because Russia's hydrocarbon exports are under sanctions. The Washington Post described the arrangement as an initial 300,000 tons followed by larger shipments in November and December. Deutsche Welle also reported that some US senators want Trump to reverse the decision.
- Immediate, first batch
- 300000 tons
- November
- 500000 tons
- Immediately after that
- 1000000 tons
- Later, depending on refineries
- 3000000 tons
The energy truce
On Sunday, 11 October, Trump posted that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was in effect and that both sides had agreed to it, adding a warning for both of them.
Do not break it!
The Atlantic reported that Trump had not first confirmed the arrangement with Volodymyr Zelensky, and that Russia spent the following hours bombarding Ukraine with missiles and drones, hitting a power plant in Kharkiv. The Washington Post reported that Zelensky learned of the truce from Trump's post and said he would abide by any reciprocal agreement. Zelensky added that Russia had already attacked Ukraine's electricity grid since Trump's démarche. He also said intercepted Kremlin communications revealed an order issued in September to expand attacks on civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and transport networks.
- Trump announces Putin agreed to supply Russian diesel; US Treasury then grants a temporary authorization
- Trump posts that an energy ceasefire is in effect; Russia hits a Kharkiv power plant hours later
Pressure on Kyiv
The Financial Times reported that US officials warned several European capitals on Sunday that the White House was considering suspending intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The Washington Post reported that the administration also threatened to block arms supplies through the NATO-coordinated program that lets European governments buy US weapons for Ukraine, including air-defense systems. SudOuest notes that Kyiv depends mainly on US Patriot systems to counter ballistic attacks. Politico reported that Trump gave Zelensky an ultimatum over Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. According to the Washington Post, senior US officials contacted European and Ukrainian leaders over the weekend to demand an end to those strikes, and Trump suggested that Ukraine needs a new president.
Kyiv's response and the critics
Zelensky called the decision weak and said it would provide extra money for the war, feeding Putin's capacity for a more intense campaign, according to Deutsche Welle. He told Axios the deal looked like a birthday present for Putin, referring to the Russian president's 74th birthday on Wednesday, 14 October. Talks between Ukrainian and US officials were under way in Miami, Florida, when the diesel announcement came, and national security advisers from several European countries had also been invited. The Atlantic columnist wrote that Trump was searching for a scapegoat for high fuel prices, as the average US diesel price crossed $6 a gallon and Republicans feared Democrats could take the House and Senate. The Washington Post editorial board called the pressure on Kyiv a double standard and argued that the deal's effect on prices before the midterm elections would probably be negligible. The midterm elections are on 3 November.
